More than 300 local data center moratoriums have delayed only three US projects, holding up roughly 2.3 gigawatts against 38 GW expected online in 2027. That is the finding of a project-by-project audit published by SemiAnalysis, which tested every active restriction against records of thousands of projects across 17 states. The bans, in the words of a field report The Economist's Archie Hall wrote after a trip through Michigan and Ohio, are "much more bark than bite."

The firm's buildout forecast has "barely moved over the last 12 months," the report said. The 38 GW of US data center IT capacity projected for 2027 is more than double the 2026 figure. Of that total, 22 GW sits under vertical construction. The remaining 16 GW is mostly financed, with site work already under way.

Enacted moratoriums cover about 20 GW of capacity, yet only about 1.5 GW within those zones is actually delayed. New York's statewide pause adds another 0.8 GW. "We think moratoriums COULD delay the buildout, but they just aren't yet at scale," SemiAnalysis said.

Why do the bans miss?

SemiAnalysis defines a moratorium as a "temporary legal pause," almost always a freeze on accepting new applications. It tracks more than 400 local instruments across 17 states, including a few permanent zoning bans, as of September. Four states acted in under two months this summer: New York, Texas, Pennsylvania and Oregon.

The audit found several structural reasons the restrictions fail to bite:

• They do not revoke existing approvals.
• Short ones may expire before a later project needs approval.
• Litigation or equipment lead times may already set the schedule.
• Capacity under construction or fully permitted is out of reach.

A moratorium moves a delivery date only if every condition holds at once. It must reach the parcel, remain in force, overlap the project timeline and cover the use in a way the developer cannot work around.

The case studies are concrete. Michigan has 45 enacted moratoriums and effectively zero pipeline exposure. A Google campus there sits on industrial land already zoned for data processing. In Texas, SpaceX's planned data center in Brownsville stands on land the city removed from its limits, placing it beyond the city moratorium's reach.

One pause did land. A township in Pennsylvania adopted its moratorium before NorthPoint filed for a special exception, pushing local approval to next year. The company is still pursuing the project.

What about the Texas permit freeze?

The 2.3 GW figure is incomplete. It excludes the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality pause, under which Gov. Greg Abbott told the agency to issue no permits for data center projects. Law firm Bracewell says the directive applies whether or not a project sits in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas queue, and expects the freeze to last until ERCOT finishes its review in mid-December. How such pauses play out could move buildout forecasts.

Politics compounds the risk. According to SemiAnalysis polling in August, more Americans hold a negative rather than positive impression of data centers. Hall sees the bigger danger in deterring newer projects, though he guesses that affects where data centers end up more than whether they get built.

What would actually slow the buildout?

The analysis concludes moratoriums would need to be "materially more widespread and restrictive" to delay construction at scale. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, one of the report's authors, said on the firm's weekly podcast last month that a strict state-level moratorium blocking even off-grid projects would be the signal to worry about, citing Texas as the example. He named no such measure currently in force.

Both governors found ways to bypass their legislatures. Abbott and New York's Kathy Hochul each control pauses they can revoke. The next move to watch is the TCEQ's compliance report to Abbott's office, due Monday, which will indicate whether the one freeze with real reach tightens or lifts.