Amazon and Google Hold a $411 Billion Anthropic Position

Amazon and Alphabet stand to show a combined $411 billion in Anthropic stake value if the AI company prices its IPO at $78 a share, the top of its $70 to $78 range. Anthropic expects to set the price on November 18 and begin trading on Nasdaq as ANT on November 19, according to a Reuters calculation of the two companies' positions.

The figure measures total stake value at the IPO price, not profit. Neither company has commented on the windfall. Amazon holds the larger and cheaper position, though much of it arrives only over time.

What is each stake actually worth?

At $78, Amazon's position is worth $271.8 billion against $18.0 billion invested. Google's is worth $139 billion against $33.3 billion put in, and that total includes roughly $10.0 billion Google is spending in the IPO placement itself.

The relative weight differs sharply. Amazon's stake equals about 9.3% of its market value at Tuesday's close, against about 3.9% for Alphabet. The IPO price therefore moves the sum-of-the-parts case for Amazon far more than for its rival.

Bankers reportedly expect pricing above the range, toward a $1.5 trillion valuation, which one outside estimate puts at roughly $83 a share. At that price, the combined stake would reach about $436 billion — Amazon at $289 billion, Alphabet at $147 billion. A price below the range, or a post-listing slide, would cut the paper value just as easily.

Why does Amazon collect its shares slowly?

A 12% cap on Amazon's holdings of Anthropic's capitalization forces the payout into installments. Amazon will hold 1,920,511,218 non-voting Class N shares after the offering, worth about $149.8 billion at $78. Another 1,563,617,444 shares, worth about $122.0 billion, will be issued later.

The structure explains Amazon's low cost basis. Its convertible notes had about $6.2 billion outstanding at September 30 and convert at fixed prices of roughly $2.09 and $5.05 per share. Google's 2026 agreement carries its own 14.99% cap, and the Class N shares give neither company control.

How does Anthropic's spending reach both clouds?

Both companies fund Anthropic and sell it computing power. AWS revenue rose 39% to $45.98 billion in the third quarter, while Google Cloud revenue rose 103% to $30.71 billion. Part of that growth depends on a single AI customer staying well funded — a circularity worth watching once quarterly marks begin.

Once Anthropic trades publicly, each company will mark its stake to the market price, and that could swing reported earnings every quarter. Valuing each stake together with its cloud business makes sense, since the same dollars show up in both.

When can either company sell?

Not soon, mostly. Lock-up terms:

• Most existing holders face lock-ups of up to 180 days.
• Holders of more than 0.5% of fully diluted shares face up to 365 days.
• Google's placement shares carry no lock-up, but they are restricted securities, resalable only under a registration statement or an exemption.

The gains stay on paper for months regardless of where ANT opens.

Which stock offers the better exposure?

Amazon offers the more direct Anthropic play among large caps. It owns the bigger piece at a lower cost, and AWS growth has accelerated for a sixth straight quarter, with management projecting growth above 40% in both 2027 and 2028.

That exposure is not free. Amazon trades near 38 times earnings and posted a trailing free cash outflow of $42.4 billion as it builds out AI capacity. Alphabet is the cheaper alternative at about 13 times earnings, with a faster-growing cloud business, but its value rests mainly on Search and Gemini; Anthropic is too small a share of Alphabet's value to move the stock much.

The November 18 pricing will settle the arithmetic. Everything after that belongs to the market.