Wall Street Brunch: Anthropic IPO Goes On The Road

Startups & Funding

Anthropic’s IPO Roadshow Targets $80 Billion to $100 Billion

Anthropic reportedly plans an $80 billion to $100 billion IPO at $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion, even as inflation keeps a 76% probability of a December Fed hike in view.

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Nathan Brooks
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By Nathan Brooks

Anthropic is seeking to raise $80 billion to $100 billion at a valuation of $1.25 trillion to $1.75 trillion in what would be the first public listing of a frontier model company. The Financial Times reported that the company will pitch institutional investors despite last week’s technology selloff and is prepared to accept a lower price.

The timing follows a volatile midterm week and the selloff that pushed Kalshi’s odds below their current level. Anthropic’s reported valuation stands at $965 billion, while investors wanted $2 trillion as recently as a month ago.

The lower target sits at least $250 billion below that earlier ambition. Price discipline has arrived whether Anthropic likes it or not.

During the roadshow, one large investor told the Financial Times: “My view is they will price it very conservatively, call it $1.5tn, and go up from there.” Other participants expected an even lower valuation of roughly $1.3 trillion.

Anthropic is racing toward a debut before Thanksgiving. Kalshi odds of an IPO before December have recovered above 80% after falling during the technology selloff.

What does the inflation backdrop change?

October CPI arrives Tuesday, with economists expecting a 0.3% monthly increase in headline prices and a 0.2% rise in core prices. Current consumer inflation stands at 3.7%, while annual core inflation is 2.6%.

Wells Fargo economists said a softer core reading “would be welcome after September’s upside surprise.” They added that it would do little to alter “the broader picture of 2026 being a lost year for bringing core inflation back to 2%.”

The bank expects the CPI report to reinforce slow and uneven disinflation and underpin one more Federal Open Market Committee hike in December. Fed funds futures assign a 76% probability to a quarter-point increase next month.

Which companies report next week?

The earnings calendar gets lighter, with 13 S&P 500 companies due to report. The named schedule concentrates on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.

  • Monday: KKR (KKR), Rocket Lab (RKLB), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
  • Tuesday: CoreWeave (CRWV).
  • Thursday: Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Nebius (NBIS).

Quantum Computing (QUBT) reports Monday. Rigetti (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) report Tuesday.

SA analyst Lee Bailey said D-Wave was selling real technology and that its enterprise traction bore watching. He did not rule out quantum optimization becoming a large enterprise business, but said a $9 share price left too little margin for error. Bailey rates the stock Sell with a working fair value of about $3.

How large did Berkshire Hathaway’s buybacks become?

Berkshire Hathaway accelerated its stock repurchases during Q3, buying $9.6 billion in shares. Visible Alpha had estimated only $1.6 billion of quarterly buybacks, and Berkshire raised full-year repurchases to $14.4 billion. Operating earnings fell approximately 6% year over year to $12.7 billion amid weakness in its insurance businesses.

What does the Nvidia allegation mean for China sales?

The Financial Times reported that U.S. intelligence officials believe Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had a romantic relationship with Alice Huang, a Chinese woman who allegedly served as a spy. U.S. officials wrote a memo earlier this year, based on information obtained by American intelligence, stating that Huang had been romantically involved with her.

U.S. officials believe China’s Ministry of State Security recruited Huang, who worked at a Singapore-based Nvidia client. She served as an executive at Megaspeed, a company facing U.S. scrutiny over allegations that it smuggled advanced Nvidia chips into China.

Nvidia said Huang’s interactions with Alice Huang were ordinary customer meetings and that no sensitive company information was shared. For Nvidia, the commercial exposure is the alleged diversion of advanced chips into China and the scrutiny surrounding its customer.

Which dividend payments follow?

Baker Hughes and IBM go ex-dividend Tuesday. Baker Hughes pays on Nov. 20, while IBM pays on Dec. 10.

Anthropic’s conservative pricing will face its first public test before Thanksgiving, with the company seeking up to $100 billion at as much as $1.75 trillion. If Tuesday’s CPI reading supports the 76% odds of a December rate hike, Anthropic may need to price nearer the lower end of the reported range.

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Nathan Brooks

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Senior reporter covering people, launches and day-to-day practice in Semiconductors, chip manufacturing, hardware, AI compute at Chip Dispatch.

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