Applied Materials Jumps 8% to $403 Ahead of Q4 Earnings

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) traded at $403.44 in afternoon action on November 11, up 8%, one day before it reports Q4 FY2026 results on November 12. Two rivals rallied harder: Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) rose 9% to $241.43, and KLA (NASDAQ:KLAC) climbed 7% to $163.49. The move marks a sharp reversal for a group that spent the past month in a steep pullback.

What set off the rebound?

The catalyst sits outside the equipment industry. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) reported a beat-and-raise quarter after the close on November 10, reviving the AI trade and easing worries about how AI data center buildouts get funded. Equipment makers benefit from that sentiment because chipmakers buy their tools to add capacity for AI chips and high-bandwidth memory (HBM).

The rally stands out against a hostile rate backdrop. Austan Goolsbee called the latest inflation report "borderline disturbing" as the Federal Reserve weighs more rate hikes. That background has not stopped buyers from returning to AI hardware names.

How deep was the pullback?

Applied Materials had dropped 20% over the past month before the rebound. Lam Research fell harder, sliding 24% over the same stretch, and its gain on November 11 is the largest of the group even though it is not the company reporting. KLA held up better with a 16% monthly decline, and its bounce is the smallest of the three.

Matching gains across all three names point to a sector-wide return of risk appetite for AI hardware. Applied Materials' earnings report provides the first hard read on whether that shift has legs.

What do the spending forecasts say?

Both Lam Research and KLA told their October earnings calls that they expect wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending to top $200 billion in 2027. That figure is up from the mid-$150 billion range expected in 2026. If those forecasts hold, toolmakers enter a spending upcycle rather than a one-quarter sentiment bounce.

How do the three toolmakers differ?

Applied Materials runs the broadest portfolio of the three. It sells materials engineering tools across deposition, etch, chemical mechanical planarization (CMP), metrology, inspection and services. That breadth gives it strong positions in DRAM, leading-edge foundry and logic, and advanced packaging.

• Lam Research concentrates on deposition and etch equipment, backed by a large customer support and spares business. The narrower focus ties it more heavily to memory, including NAND flash, and to foundry and logic transitions. Management says the company holds the industry's largest installed base of NAND systems.
• KLA specializes in process control: the metrology and inspection systems that catch defects, plus a printed circuit board inspection business. Chief executive Rick Wallace said on October 28 that KLA's process control work "continues to be critical to the AI ecosystem buildout."

What does Applied Materials need to deliver?

In its Q3 FY2026 results on August 13, the company guided Q4 revenue to approximately $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million, and adjusted EPS of $4.02, plus or minus $0.20. CEO Gary Dickerson said at the time that the company expects "another strong growth year for Applied Materials in 2027."

Two swing factors shape the outcome. The first is whether AI-driven demand for advanced logic and memory equipment keeps orders strong and supports a solid outlook for the coming quarter. The second is China, whose share of Applied Materials' revenue has eased to 28% from 35% amid export-control uncertainty.

Customers have given the company longer visibility. CFO Brice Hill noted on the August call that some conversations are "now extending to 2030." The bulls' case rests on record results, rising memory and packaging demand, and a stock that has already absorbed a deep monthly drop. A cautious China outlook or any sign of order fatigue, however, could quickly reverse a bounce built largely on sentiment, so the November 12 report will test whether the rally reflects demand or mood.