Banks reject China-linked Anthropic IPO orders under ITAR

By Grace Kim

Anthropic is offering 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78, seeking $57.8 billion to $64.4 billion before the underwriters’ option. Banks running the IPO are refusing or discouraging orders from mainland China and Hong Kong, Bloomberg reported Friday, Nov. 13.

Several banks have refused those orders. Others consider allocations unlikely. People familiar with the matter said ITAR partly explains why banks refuse orders or doubt allocations because it controls trade in defense products and services. Anthropic declined comment. Its products are not officially available in China or Hong Kong.

Which investors are being turned away?

The same approach appeared in SpaceX’s $86.2 billion IPO earlier this year. Syndicate banks were instructed to bar orders from mainland China and Hong Kong under ITAR rules. Both offerings put export-compliance questions before the syndicate.

Why does ITAR apply to AI models?

Anthropic’s amended registration statement, filed Nov. 10, says its models, platform and applications may be controlled under the Commerce Department’s Export Administration Regulations. In more limited circumstances, ITAR may apply.

The filing states: “in certain contexts, the provision of our models, platform, and applications may constitute export of defense articles or defense services subject to the ITAR.” The disclosure identifies the compliance issue behind the banks’ order restrictions.

The company has already cut companies under Chinese control off from its services and has accused DeepSeek, Moonshot and MiniMax of distillation attacks on Claude. These restrictions therefore sit alongside Anthropic’s existing limits on Chinese-controlled customers.

How are investors seeking access?

Some prospective investors are pursuing offshore routes, including a family office tied to a Chinese technology founder that submitted an order through a British Virgin Islands trust. Bloomberg reported that the bid’s success remained unclear.

Other investors are exploring special purpose vehicles and swaps. Hong Kong-based institutions may try to bid through offshore holding companies. Anthropic retains final allocation decisions, and formal written guidelines are unlikely, according to the report.

What are the offering’s main terms?

The company and selling stockholders are offering 825 million Class A shares, including 801.4 million new shares, at an estimated $70 to $78 per share. The range would raise $57.8 billion to $64.4 billion before the underwriters’ option.

Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, TSMC and other investors will separately buy $26 billion of Class N stock at the IPO price in a concurrent private placement. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead a 22-bank syndicate. The shares are scheduled to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “ANT.”

When does the deal price and trade?

The offering is scheduled to price on Nov. 18 and begin trading on Nov. 19, while Anthropic has not filed another amendment since its Nov. 10 registration statement. On Nov. 12, it filed free-writing prospectuses for its IPO website and for marketing in the UK, European Economic Area, Japan and Australia.

The Financial Times reported that bankers were weighing a price above the stated range. Such a move would lift the valuation to $1.5 trillion or more, according to that report. The higher valuation remains under discussion rather than confirmed.

The next pricing test is whether demand supports a price above $70 to $78 without deepening the allocation uncertainty created by ITAR restrictions. China-linked investors remain dependent on Anthropic’s unpublished allocation decisions, even as offshore bids circulate.