Barclays Starts Technoprobe at Overweight, €40 Target, on AI Test Demand

By Nathan Brooks

Barclays has launched coverage of Technoprobe (BIT:TPRO) with an overweight rating and a €40 price target, resting its case on a striking number: close to 100% share of probe cards used to test AI graphics chips. The Italian maker of test equipment interfaces, it seems, currently has that market almost to itself.

Probe cards are the connectors that link chips to test gear, screening out defective parts before packaging. The economics of AI silicon favor the supplier. More complex AI chips require longer and more frequent tests, so probe-card demand should grow faster than chip volumes themselves. Beyond AI accelerators, Technoprobe holds about 60% of the market for probe cards used on leading-edge logic chips.

How big is the AI probe-card market?

Barclays, after speaking with more than 20 industry experts, models the AI probe-card market expanding from roughly €1.7 billion in 2026 to about €7.1 billion by 2030. That is more than a fourfold increase in four years, driven not by unit volumes alone but by the intensity of testing each high-end chip now demands.

The bank puts Technoprobe's 2030 revenue at €3.5 billion in its model. Technoprobe's own forecast stands at €2.8 billion — a figure that gives no credit for co-packaged optics and assumes about €200 million of memory-chip revenue, versus roughly €410 million in the Barclays model. Company caution, in other words, leaves headroom.

What do the earnings numbers say?

Barclays' 2027 earnings-per-share forecast of €0.86 sits 6% above the Bloomberg consensus of €0.81. Its 2028 forecast of €1.17 is 9% above the €1.07 consensus. The bank is betting the analysts are behind the curve.

The recent results support that view. Gross margin climbed to 57% in Q2 FY26 from 40% in Q3 FY25. Management guides to 61.5%, plus or minus 2 percentage points, for Q3 FY26. A seventeen-point margin recovery in three quarters is not the work of luck.

Operating discipline helped. Barclays noted that research, sales and administrative costs have stayed flat for six quarters while revenue grew strongly. The bank forecasts EBITDA margin of 48% in 2026 and 53% in 2028, against 32% in 2025.

Where is the capacity going?

Technoprobe has raised its spending plan to about €350 million covering Q1 FY26 through Q1 FY27, up from about €240 million previously. The goal is capacity of at least €1.6 billion by end-Q1 FY27, from €1.4 billion today.

Barclays estimates a 46% return on invested capital on that program. Its 2026 capex forecast of €240 million sits below the consensus of about €285 million, though the bank characterizes the gap as a delay in spending rather than a cut.

Company guidance calls for 2026 revenue of €1.05 billion to €1.10 billion, with Q3 FY26 revenue of €314 million. Barclays flags a further expansion plan, possibly detailed in November, as a key catalyst for the stock.

What could go wrong?

The name is FormFactor. The rival has now qualified its probe cards for AI graphics chips, and Barclays expects 2027 to bring the first meaningful share gains for FormFactor at Technoprobe's expense. The bank assumes Technoprobe's share of those chips falls to about 85% by 2028.

A fifteen-point slide would sting, though it would come on a market growing more than fourfold. If Barclays' €7.1 billion estimate for 2030 holds, Technoprobe could lose share and still gain revenue.

The near-term question is November. A detailed expansion plan would confirm that management sees the same demand curve Barclays does; anything less leaves the €40 target leaning on the bank's model alone.