Broadcom at $293.69: Three Credit Caps, Not a Broken AI Order Book

Broadcom shares closed at $293.69 on NASDAQ on Friday, 6 November 2026, and the price sits on top of three separate financing documents, not one broken AI order book. The model distribution through the 31 December close is $344.22 on the bull side, $267.28 at the base, and $225.80 at the bear. The stock fell 10.43% on Thursday, its largest single-day move in ninety sessions, one session after a Form 8-K that caps a new residual-value backstop at roughly $43 billion.

What did the filings actually say?

On 26 October 2026, Broadcom arranged residual-value support for a newly formed special purpose vehicle and capped its maximum potential liability, undiscounted and upon deployment, at approximately $43 billion. The exposure is the gap versus 72.5% of what remains owed on the related leases. The 8-K does not name the customer. If a default occurs, the remedies are assuming the lease, reselling the racks to the seller at a fixed price, or selling the racks outright.

That cap is not a second instrument described in the August quarter report. The 10-Q for the quarter ended 2 August 2026 allows convertible notes up to $42 billion, only for lease obligations, and states that none had been issued as of that date. The same 10-Q discloses an earlier backstop of approximately $29 billion on an 85% test, with fair value not material and no amounts paid. The October filing does not amend either of those sentences. Adding the three into one "AI credit" total is arithmetic the company has not performed.

CFO Amie Thuener had said on the 2 September call: "Where necessary, we may provide modest residual value guarantees, which are contingent liabilities we view as low risk, supported by the strong profitability trajectory of these labs and the sustaining value of the underlying assets." The 26 October 8-K keeps the low-probability framing while stating the higher cap. The takeaway in plain words: the adjective "modest" and the $43 billion number now sit in the same file.

Is the AI order book still intact?

No saved filing withdraws the growth sentences. CEO Hock Tan said on 2 September that Q3 AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion, up 221% year over year and 54% quarter over quarter, and that "in Q4 the momentum continues, and we expect AI semiconductor revenue to accelerate to $21.7 billion, up 236% year-over-year."

Tan also said the company had "secured the supply to again double AI revenue to approximately $115 billion" in 2027, with "line of sight" to $230 billion in fiscal 2028 and supply secured for that outlook. He said Broadcom would deploy 1 gigawatt of Ironwood in 2026, expected 5 gigawatts of TPU version 8i for Anthropic in 2027, and saw an incremental 10 gigawatts in 2028, "even as we expect Google to grow for us." For OpenAI, he said Jalapeno was on track for 1.3 gigawatts in 2027, with line of sight to more than 5 gigawatts in 2028. Total Q3 revenue was $29.6 billion, up 86%, with $13.7 billion of free cash flow.

The Motley Fool reported on 28 October that a vehicle using $63 billion would buy Broadcom AI hardware and lease it to Anthropic, funded by Bank of America, Blackstone, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley. Those names are the report's account, not the 8-K.

Where does the price stand?

Friday's close sits 11.57% under the 20-day average of $332.125 and 15.58% under the 50-day average of $347.8857. It is 39.01% under the 2 June high close of $481.57. Thursday's fall, from $325.48 to $291.53, came on 53.8 million shares; Friday's bounce of $2.16 traded on 32.4 million. The 10-Q also shows one unnamed distributor at 50% of quarterly net revenue, up from 32% a year earlier.

Gil Luria of D.A. Davidson raised a 12-month target from $350 to $400 on 4 November, citing Anthropic commitments of $161 billion — a figure not in any filing, and $55.78 above the model's year-end bull.

The fiscal fourth quarter ended 1 November and no earnings date has been filed. A result near the $21.7 billion AI guide with the cap unchanged would fit a credit repricing; a miss or a larger cap fits the bear case.