Cerebras Jumps 8% on Microsoft Deal and Raised Guidance

Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS) reported third-quarter core revenue of $230.9 million, beating the $214.7 million LSEG consensus, and added Microsoft as its third hyperscaler customer. The stock rose 8% to $105.92 on November 13, while the Leverage Shares 2X Long CBRS Daily ETF (CBOE:CBRG) surged 16% to $0.81 in afternoon trading. The gains arrived against a falling market: the NASDAQ 100 dropped 2%, with technology the weakest sector.

The leverage fund aims to deliver twice Cerebras' daily move. It resets each day, so longer-term returns drift from that multiple. The reset has been unkind lately. The ETF trades under a dollar and has lost 55% over the past month, and Cerebras itself remains down 47% since its May IPO.

What did the quarter deliver?

Cerebras posted results after the close on November 12. Adjusted earnings came in at 12 cents per share, against an LSEG consensus loss of 14 cents, as CNBC reported. On a GAAP basis, the company lost $0.67 per share in its earnings release, weighed down by $155.1 million in stock-based compensation.

Guidance carried the heavier load. Cerebras forecast Q4 2026 revenue of $310 million to $330 million, well above the $271 million consensus. It also raised its full-year 2026 core revenue outlook to between $940 million and $960 million. Management repeated a plan to triple revenue in 2027, which CNBC said implies $2.85 billion — slightly below the $2.92 billion analysts expect. Ambition, in this case, still runs a touch shy of the spreadsheet.

The Microsoft deal was signed in October, with revenue expected to begin in Q1 2027, CEO Andrew Feldman said. Together with two earlier hyperscaler agreements, the arrangement gives Cerebras three hyperscalers running inference on its platform. Feldman did not hold back: "Cerebras' technology remains the undisputed champion of speed."

Why did NVIDIA and AMD fall instead?

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) slid 3% to $161.09, and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) fell 11% to $522.93. AMD's steeper drop came despite a direct commercial tie to Cerebras. On the November 12 call, management said Cerebras' production disaggregated inference platform pairs AMD GPUs for prefill with Cerebras CS-3 systems for decode.

The divergence reflects business models more than fundamentals. Cerebras builds wafer-scale processors for fast AI inference, sells them as systems, and rents capacity through Cerebras Cloud, which now generates most of its revenue. Its design skips high-bandwidth memory, which management expects will spare it the memory-supply squeeze facing competitors through 2028. That narrow focus makes the company a pure play on inference speed.

NVIDIA, by contrast, sells a far broader platform: GPUs, networking, complete systems and the CUDA software stack, serving hyperscalers, enterprises and sovereign governments. AMD spreads across data center accelerators, server and PC processors, gaming, embedded products and Helios rack-scale systems. Both giants carry greater exposure to overall chip-sector sentiment, which explains why they fell together while Cerebras traded on company-specific news.

Can the Microsoft ramp stay on schedule?

The next test is whether Microsoft revenue starts flowing on the schedule Feldman described. Bulls can cite $26.1 billion in remaining performance obligations as of September 30 and the repeated 2027 growth plan. A Q4 return to breakeven core operating profit, which management expects, would add support.

OpenAI offers the bear case. Cerebras acknowledged it is running behind on initial capacity under its OpenAI agreement, citing land, power and shell constraints, and expects to be back on schedule by the second half of 2027. Management said OpenAI has not cancelled any delayed capacity as of the call. Holders of the leveraged ETF face a magnified version of that risk, because the daily reset amplifies any drop in the underlying stock. The OpenAI capacity timeline, more than the Microsoft win, will likely decide where the fund trades next.