China's Trade Surplus Passes $1 Trillion as AI Hardware Fuels Exports

China's trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of the year, customs data released Tuesday showed, against a record $1.2 trillion for all of 2025.

October exports rose 35.2% year on year, beating the 33.5% forecast in a Reuters poll but slowing from September's 36.3%. Imports jumped 41.6%, up sharply from 31% in September and well above the 32% forecast. The surge in imports pulled the monthly surplus down to $105.3 billion, the lowest since April, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC.

The figures point to a trade economy increasingly driven by technology flows. Chinese chips and other AI-related hardware supported the export surge, CNBC reported, while high-tech imports climbed 72% in value from a year earlier by its calculation.

What drove the import surge?

Energy and raw materials rose alongside technology goods. By CNBC's calculations:

• High-tech product imports rose 72% in value
• Crude oil imports rose 41%
• Liquefied natural gas imports rose 50%
• Coal imports rose 60%

Tianchen Xu of the Economist Intelligence Unit attributed the import growth to tech-related goods, critical minerals such as copper, and energy supplies including LNG, oil and coal.

For semiconductor suppliers, the export strength carries a caveat. CNBC noted that a slowdown in the global AI buildout could weaken export momentum and squeeze Chinese exporters' margins, a risk that sits directly on the chip and hardware makers now carrying the trade balance.

How did trade with the U.S. and EU shape up?

Exports to the United States rose 32.9% in October from a year earlier. Imports from the U.S. rose nearly 35%. The bilateral surplus stood at $32.7 billion.

U.S.-bound shipments are up 12.1% for the year through October. The figure partly reflects a low base: last year such shipments fell 20% after tariff increases.

The European Union presents a different picture. Shipments to the bloc grew 24.4% while imports from it fell more than 4%, producing a $33.4 billion surplus. An EU-Beijing arrangement limiting imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles to 350,000 a year takes effect December 1. China exported about 300,000 hybrids to Europe last year, but the recent annualized pace is roughly 800,000, according to Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, cited by CNBC.

Is momentum already slowing?

Several indicators suggest yes. Nguyen Hoang Nam of Capital Economics estimated a seasonally adjusted 2% month-on-month fall in exports for October. "Momentum looks to have slowed," he said.

China Beige Book found new domestic and export orders for goods slowed in October from a year earlier. The official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly showed contraction as overseas orders cooled.

Domestic demand remains weak. Retail sales grew a modest 1.1% in September. Household consumption stays soft even as trading partners press Beijing to boost domestic demand. The government's annual growth target is 4.5% to 5%.

What comes next?

Washington and Beijing agreed in September to extend their trade truce by two months, to January. Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen next week.

If the global AI buildout holds, Chinese chip and hardware exports can keep propping up the surplus. If it cools, exporters face narrower margins on top of already weakening order books.