Chip Exports Push South Korea’s Surplus Above $60 Billion

By Nathan Brooks

South Korea posted a $61.46 billion current-account surplus in September 2026, its first monthly reading above $60 billion on record. The result was about 82.5 trillion won.

The Bank of Korea’s preliminary balance-of-payments data, released on the 5th, showed the surplus $15.34 billion above August’s $46.11 billion and $47.24 billion above September 2025’s $14.22 billion. Both month-on-month and year-on-year increases were the largest on record.

The result also passed June’s previous high of $49.73 billion, while the January-September surplus reached $340.66 billion, more than four times the $83.89 billion recorded a year earlier.

What drove the record surplus?

The goods balance posted a record $62.75 billion surplus, above June’s $47.89 billion. On the balance-of-payments basis, goods exports jumped 92.4% to $130.72 billion, clearing $100 billion for a fourth consecutive month. A concentration of deliveries at quarter-end amplified the gain.

On customs-clearance data:

• Solid-state drive exports soared 392.3% year over year, followed by semiconductor exports at 260.3% and petroleum products at 73.3%.
• IT exports rose 195.8%, while non-IT exports increased 13.4%, the first time both groups advanced together.
• Exports to the United States rose 136.9%, China 123.1%, and Southeast Asia 113.2%. Japan increased 25.2% and the European Union 21.2%, while the Middle East fell 14.1% and Latin America 3.6%.

Park Sung-gon, head of the Bank of Korea’s Balance of Payments Team, cautioned that “it is difficult to precisely determine the contribution of semiconductor exports from balance of payments statistics,” but said that “looking at exports alone, semiconductors appear to have contributed about 45.2 percentage points to export growth in the cumulative January-October period this year.”

The same analysis put September semiconductor prices up about 182% and physical volume up 30.5%. The export surge therefore came more from unit prices than from shipments.

Goods imports grew 29.4% to $67.97 billion. Capital-goods imports rose 42.3%, with semiconductors up 92.8% and semiconductor manufacturing equipment 49.2%, reflecting resumed facility investment. Raw-material imports increased 21.3%; gas rose 42.5%, crude oil 38.4%, and coal 24.2%. The average crude-oil import price climbed 34.5% to $98 a barrel.

How concentrated is chip export growth?

One product category did most of the work. On the separate customs series, semiconductors increased from 31.2% of total exports in January to 49.9% in September.

Total exports rose $55.1 billion, from $65.8 billion to $120.9 billion, while semiconductor exports rose $39.8 billion, from $20.5 billion to $60.3 billion. Thus, 72% of the export increase came from semiconductors.

Memory-price weakness could shrink the surplus quickly. Kim said exports excluding semiconductors grew 8% in 2024 and 3.8% in 2025, with recent growth far above those rates; the non-IT sector is also holding up reasonably well.

What offset the goods gain?

The services-balance deficit widened to $3.35 billion from $1.68 billion in August. The transport surplus shrank from $520 million to $130 million as charter-hire payments increased. Intellectual-property royalty income concentrated in the prior month disappeared, widening that category’s deficit from $390 million to $770 million.

The travel deficit held at $770 million. Outbound travelers fell from 2.432 million to 2.268 million, while inbound travelers declined from 2.245 million to 2.062 million as the summer peak ended.

The primary-income balance recorded a $2.65 billion surplus as dividend income nearly doubled from $1.18 billion to $2.24 billion. The bank linked the change to the seasonal burden of quarterly dividend payments on securities investment receding.

Where did the financial flows go?

Net assets in the financial account increased by $54.34 billion, above June’s record $46.71 billion. Direct investment showed South Korean residents’ overseas investment rising $11.43 billion and foreign investment in South Korea increasing $6.52 billion.

Residents’ overseas securities investment rose $16.63 billion, second only to October 2025’s $17.29 billion. The $9.91 billion equity component and $6.72 billion bond component took bond investment to a record for a second consecutive month.

Foreign investment in South Korea fell $13.81 billion, led by a $13.74 billion equity outflow. The net selling was concentrated in large semiconductor stocks.

Can the annual surplus reach $500 billion?

Against the Bank of Korea’s $450 billion annual current-account forecast, the $340.66 billion January-September surplus already represents 75.7%. Kim Young-hwan, director general of the bank’s Economic Statistics Department, said: “The September goods balance recorded its largest-ever surplus as robust goods exports were combined with end-of-quarter effects.”

A monthly average surplus of $36.5 billion over the remaining three months would meet the forecast, while exceeding $500 billion would require $53.1 billion a month. The recent three-month average was about $49.9 billion, so some assess $500 billion as within reach.

October exports declined and imports increased from September, narrowing the customs-clearance trade surplus, but Kim expects a current-account surplus around the second largest on record. December’s year-end effects could produce another monthly record, while recent dividend issues tied to shareholder-return policies remain a downside risk.

What changes at the next outlook revision?

Market attention now shifts to the Bank of Korea’s revised economic outlook scheduled for the 26th. Third-quarter real gross domestic product grew 1% from the previous quarter, above the central bank’s 0.3% forecast, prompting discussion of an upward revision. The average 2026 growth forecast among eight foreign investment banks stood at 3.7% in late October, up 0.2 percentage point from a month earlier.

The next test is whether chip prices remain firm enough to sustain export revenue. A memory-price reversal could narrow the surplus before it reaches $500 billion, because semiconductors account for 72% of the cited export increase.