CoreWeave's $13.5 Billion Capex Meets a 16% Bond Yield

CoreWeave reports third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, Nov. 10, with guidance of $3.45–3.6 billion in revenue against capital spending of $11.5–13.5 billion — and a 9.625% bond due 2032 that now yields more than 16%. Five credit default swaps tell the same story from another angle: CoreWeave's five-year CDS rose above 1,289 basis points on Nov. 5, according to Deutsche Bank data cited by CNBC. The GPU cloud that doubled its revenue is now the week's most closely watched debt test.

The week opens against a bruising backdrop. The Nasdaq Composite fell 3.37% to 24,579.42, its fourth consecutive weekly loss, and the S&P 500 dropped 2.68%. Nebius, Cisco, Applied Materials and Cerebras all report Thursday, and October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Can CoreWeave fund its build?

Second-quarter revenue rose 112% to $2.58 billion, with a backlog of roughly $104 billion. That figure excludes more than $25 billion of new commitments signed early in the third quarter. The net loss was $626 million, and net interest expense climbed to $640 million from $267 million a year earlier.

The trajectory is stark. Revenue has grown from $1.21 billion in Q2 2025 to $2.58 billion in Q2 2026, according to MLQ's SEC-derived financials, while the operating line swung from a $19 million profit to a $49 million loss. CoreWeave expects 2026 capex of $35–39 billion. Nasdaq's calendar puts consensus at a loss of $1.45 a share. Microsoft supplied about two-thirds of 2025 revenue and has pulled back from neocloud capacity — one reason the earnings call, at 5 p.m. ET, matters beyond one company.

What do the other AI clouds show?

Nebius reports before the open Thursday. Its Q2 revenue rose 454% to $582.3 million, annualized run-rate revenue hit $3.0 billion, up from $1.9 billion at the end of March, and it raised its year-end contracted power target to 5 GW in August. Its largest early contract, with Microsoft, is worth about $17.4 billion; Bloomberg reported Microsoft has tightened oversight of Nebius, IREN and Nscale projects.

Cerebras reports after the close, its second quarterly report since the IPO. Q2 GAAP revenue rose 74% to $180.1 million, non-GAAP core revenue was $209.9 million, and it guided to Q3 core revenue of $214–216 million. It holds $25.4 billion of remaining performance obligations, with OpenAI, G42, MBZUAI and AWS named as significant customers. CEO Andrew Feldman spent last week rebutting a short seller's claim that its wafer-scale chips wear out in about two years.

Will Cisco and Applied Materials hold their AI targets?

Cisco guided to $18.0–18.2 billion of revenue, roughly 22% above the $14.9 billion it reported a year earlier. It booked $9.3 billion of AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026 and expects about $7.5 billion of such revenue in fiscal 2027, up from about $4 billion. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to equal-weight on Nov. 5; it fell about 7%.

Applied Materials guided to $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million, after a record $9.12 billion quarter. The midpoint sits about 51% above the $6.80 billion of a year earlier. DRAM rose to 26% of semiconductor systems revenue from 22%, and the CFO said he expects strong growth "particularly in DRAM" in the second half. Those tool orders follow a memory shortage that has pushed Micron's, SK hynix's and Sandisk's operating margins to about 80%. CEO Gary Dickerson said in August he expects "another strong growth year" in 2027. Investors will check whether that still holds.

What happens to CPI without a headline rate?

October CPI arrives Tuesday, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish a 12-month rate for either the headline or core index. It never collected October 2025 prices during the government shutdown, so there is no base for comparison. Bloomberg's survey expects a 0.3% monthly rise, after 0.6% in September, and 0.2% for core. The latest annual reading is September's 3.7%. Friday's producer price index is expected up 6.6% year over year, the steepest annual increase in nearly four years.

Fed funds futures price about an 80% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, after October payrolls rose 165,000 against forecasts of 59,000. Wednesday is the Veterans Day holiday.

Monday also brings Rocket Lab, which guided to $250–265 million of revenue with a $2.36 billion backlog and Neutron's pad delivery targeted for Q4; AST SpaceMobile, with $350–425 million of capex and a $150–200 million 2026 revenue goal; and Plug Power, which said revenue grew more than 10% with cash use near $28 million.

The Senate holds a cloture vote Monday on its permitting bill, whose ratepayer program could make data centers pay full grid upgrade costs. Anthropic is expected to begin its IPO roadshow this week, with buyers discussing valuations below $1.5 trillion, and Nvidia reports Nov. 17. Whether CoreWeave can keep renting compute more cheaply than it borrows will shape how the rest of the AI supply chain trades.