D-Wave and Rigetti Face Cash-Burn Tests on November 10

NASDAQ-listed D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) and Rigetti Computing (RGTI) enter their November 10, 2026 earnings reports with shares down 62.0% and 50.2% year to date, respectively. The commercial test is narrow: revenue must begin to justify the cash burn.

At $10.68 and $11.58 in Monday premarket trading, the stocks had lost 63.6% and 64.5% over the previous year. D-Wave reports before the market opens and holds a webcast at 8:00 a.m. ET. Rigetti reports after the close and holds its call at 5:00 p.m. ET.

What does consensus expect?

Analyst estimates set a demanding but still modest revenue bar for both companies:

Metric	D-Wave	Rigetti
Q3 2026 EPS consensus	Loss of $0.0988	Loss of $0.0513
Q3 2025 EPS	Loss of $0.05	Loss of $0.03
Q3 2026 revenue consensus	$4,337,120	$3,675,950
Implied year-over-year revenue growth	16.0%	88.8%
Revenue analysts	16	12
FY2026 EPS consensus	Loss of $0.2971	Loss of $0.1870
FY2026 revenue consensus	$42,471,240	$23,259,000
Implied FY revenue growth	72.7%	228.1%

These are consensus figures, not company guidance or recognized revenue. Sixteen analysts contribute to the D-Wave revenue consensus and 12 to Rigetti’s. The EPS estimates also remain losses, so faster revenue growth does not yet imply profitability.

How large is the scale gap?

NYSE-listed IonQ generated $173.8 million in third-quarter revenue, more than the full-year 2026 revenue consensus for D-Wave and Rigetti combined. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang described the commercial significance without overpromising: “Quantum computer is not the next big thing, but it is a big thing.”

That comparison describes commercial scale, not a verdict on architecture. Jordi Visser said on The Pomp Podcast that quantum is a hardware issue. Steve Grasso said on CNBC’s Fast Money that the companies in question are solving part of the quantum space, not the whole field, while burning substantial cash.

Can D-Wave turn bookings into revenue?

D-Wave posted $3.08 million of second-quarter revenue, missing expectations by 23.6%. First-half bookings rose to $35.5 million, while backlog reached $40.7 million. Management guided to third-quarter revenue only modestly above Q2 and expects most of the year’s revenue in Q4, when two annealing systems ship.

Cash and investments fell to $546.2 million, mostly because of the roughly $250 million Quantum Circuits acquisition. The adjusted EBITDA loss grew to $37.1 million. Cash and investments do not measure operating burn by themselves, particularly after an acquisition.

D-Wave also needs bookings beyond the Florida Atlantic University deal, confirmation that both Q4 shipments remain on schedule and progress on its 17-qubit gate-model system, which management targets for this year. Operating expenses and new deals also belong under scrutiny. IonQ CEO Niccolo De Masi said IonQ extended its multi-year collaboration with D-Wave at SkyWater.

D-Wave’s Q1 release took a broader view: commercial proof, technical breadth and a differentiated path to gate-model error correction and scaling would become more prominent as the market matures.

What must Rigetti prove?

Rigetti missed revenue estimates in all four quarters of 2025. It then exceeded consensus with $5.14 million in Q2 2026 revenue, up 185.3% year over year. Management expects to recognize the $8.4 million C-DAC system order in Q4, concentrating the next major revenue step in one delivery.

Rigetti’s collaboration with Hewlett Packard Enterprise and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center “reflects growing demand for our approach,” the company said in its Q2 release. Liquidity reached $541.3 million with no debt, while capital spending rose to $12.0 million.

The company needs to preserve the C-DAC timeline, reach its targeted 99.5% two-qubit fidelity and keep operating cash outflow close to Q2’s $15.78 million. A Commerce letter of intent could bring up to $100 million, but the transaction would require issuing equity.

What counts as a win Tuesday?

D-Wave’s revenue must exceed $3.08 million, or management’s own guidance for a modest sequential increase will fall short. It also needs bookings beyond Florida Atlantic University and confirmation of two Q4 annealing-system shipments. Rigetti needs to hold its C-DAC timeline and keep operating cash outflow near $15.78 million.

EPS beats alone will not settle either case; revenue conversion, delivery timing and operating cash discipline will. Looking ahead, the decisive variable is conversion: D-Wave must ship two annealing systems in Q4, and Rigetti must recognize its $8.4 million C-DAC order. If either slips, the revenue scale gap with IonQ will matter more than another round of technical promises.