Dell and HPE Enter AI Earnings Test After Sharp Selloff

By Sophie Lindqvist

Dell Technologies traded at $329.00 in premarket trading on November 9, 2026. The price was 43.1% below its $578.17 October 7 close. Hewlett Packard Enterprise fell 37.7% over the same month, from $72.09 to $44.90.

Since October 30, Dell fell 22.5% and HPE 18.5%, yet both remained up 164.2% and 89.0%, respectively, for the year. Investors cited fears that a Democratic Congress and state governments could tighten rules for artificial intelligence and data centers after the midterm elections. Dell had already been falling before that political catalyst, as doubts grew over when enterprises would convert AI plans into equipment orders.

Can Dell turn a $95 billion backlog into cash?

Dell's decline began in mid-October, when it led a selloff in data-center equipment shares over enterprise AI spending timing; post-midterm regulation fears then hit an already weakening stock. Fiscal Q2 2027 exposed the weakness. Record revenue of $46.97 billion came with free cash flow of $986 million, down 47% year over year. Investors want backlog converted into cash, not merely booked.

Non-GAAP operating margin rose to 12.6% from 7.7%, while Infrastructure Solutions Group margin reached 15.0% from 8.8%. CFO David Kennedy cautioned that every benefit might not persist, while calling the gains structural.

COO Jeff Clarke said: “The constraints remain the same. DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND.” He also said demand exceeded published results and Dell remained supply constrained.

What must Dell prove on November 24?

Dell is expected to report fiscal Q3 2027 on November 24. Management targets revenue of $49.0 billion, up 81% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $6.50. AI server revenue should reach $19 billion, while ISG operating income rate should rise just over one point.

Full-year guidance remains $192 billion of revenue, $74 billion of AI-optimized server revenue, and $25.50 of non-GAAP EPS. Those figures are management targets, not analyst forecasts or confirmed outcomes.

Dell booked $60.9 billion of AI server orders in fiscal Q2 and ended with a record $95 billion AI backlog. It has beaten EPS estimates for five straight quarters; fiscal Q2 delivered a 43.69% surprise.

A credible recovery would require several things:

• Revenue meets or beats $49.0 billion, with full-year guidance of $192 billion holding or rising.
• Backlog grows beyond $95 billion, showing orders still outpace shipments.
• Free cash flow stops falling despite a larger mix of lower-margin AI servers.
• Non-GAAP operating margin holds above 12%.

Evidence against that case would be falling free cash flow, a stalled or smaller backlog, or AI server margin erosion that outruns scale. Cutting the $25.50 EPS or $192 billion revenue targets would weaken the thesis further. A shrinking backlog would matter more than political headlines.

Can Juniper carry HPE's networking growth?

HPE faces a different test: Juniper Networks must become a growth engine after the company shifted its center of gravity toward networking. CEO Antonio Neri said: “We are leading with networking. We are at the core becoming a networking company.” Investors now question that shift if data-center construction slows. AI systems also occupy more of HPE's revenue.

Management expects gross margin to move toward historical levels. Cloud & AI operating margin should ease to about 13% in fiscal 2027. Reported networking revenue rose 74.9% year over year to $2.89 billion with Juniper's help.

The normalized measure was less flattering: networking grew 10%, while data-center networking revenue fell 6%. Management attributed that decline to shipment timing and supply constraints.

What must HPE prove on November 23?

HPE has confirmed a fiscal Q4 2026 call for 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, November 23, covering the quarter ended October 31. Guidance calls for $13.9 billion to $14.8 billion of revenue. Non-GAAP EPS should range from $1.20 to $1.30.

Its fiscal 2027 framework requires 13% to 17% revenue growth, EPS of $4.40 to $4.60, and at least $5.0 billion of free cash flow. Fiscal Q3 free cash flow reached $958 million, up 21%. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 16.2% from 8.5%.

HPE has beaten EPS estimates for at least six quarters, and networking orders rose 36%. An expanded Oracle agreement will deploy HPE Juniper routers and switches across a large AI cloud expansion. Neri described the opportunity as multi-gigawatt and multiyear.

After quarter-end, HPE won a multibillion-dollar server order from a hyperscaler for inferencing. Investors briefly returned on November 6, when the stock outperformed peers.

The report must confirm several conditions:

• Q4 revenue reaches or exceeds the midpoint of the $13.9 billion to $14.8 billion range.
• Reported fiscal 2026 networking growth lands within the raised 73% to 74% guide, and free cash flow reaches at least $3.75 billion.
• Juniper synergies stay on schedule, or ahead, for $600 million in annual run-rate savings by the end of fiscal 2028.

Cutting fiscal 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $3.75 to $3.85, trimming fiscal 2027, missing networking growth, or taking new Juniper integration impairments would break the case. A stall after fiscal Q3 server growth of 35.3% would point to weaker customer demand.

Which earnings setup is stronger?

HPE enters earnings with the cleaner setup: a confirmed date, growing free cash flow, and a defined fiscal 2027 framework. Dell has the larger backlog and growth engine, but another quarter of falling cash flow on record revenue would pressure the stock regardless of new AI orders. The key commercial test is conversion, not headline demand: Dell must turn $95 billion into shipments and cash, while HPE must turn Juniper scale into sustainable networking growth without sacrificing margins. The next verdict comes first at HPE on November 23 and Dell on November 24: supply-constrained orders become valuable only if shipments, margins and cash flow arrive together.