The average fixed transaction price of DRAM for business-to-business deals reached $26 in September, up 4% month over month — the 18th consecutive monthly increase for the memory device, according to data released October 1 by market research firm DRAMeXchange. The benchmark contract covers DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 chips used in B2B transactions.

NAND flash prices set a record of their own. The fixed transaction price for 128Gb 16Gx8 MLC NAND rose 0.44% from August to $30.61 in September, marking 21 straight months of gains dating back to January 2025, DRAMeXchange reported.

Slower climb, longer plateau

The pace of the DRAM rally has cooled from its steepest phase earlier in the cycle, though the direction remains firmly upward. Prices have climbed without interruption since April 2025.

TrendForce, a second market research firm, attributed the September moderation to the timing of contract negotiations rather than any softening of demand. "As DRAM suppliers and PC manufacturers finalized third-quarter contract prices during July–August, transaction volumes decreased in September," TrendForce said. Negotiation focus has now shifted to fourth-quarter and next-year volumes, temporarily blunting the price surge.

The underlying market has not weakened. TrendForce sharply raised its fourth-quarter price forecast for PC DRAM, lifting the projected increase from 3–8% to 13–18%. The revision reflects expectations that PC DRAM supply will contract as manufacturers redirect production capacity toward server DRAM — a shift consistent with the demand structure that has fueled the current shortage across the memory market.

NAND buyers hit their limit

NAND tells a different story. Price increases have lagged well behind DRAM throughout the cycle, and TrendForce's analysis points to buyer fatigue as the reason. NAND MLC prices have already reached levels high enough to weigh on buyers' cost structures, and their capacity to absorb further hikes has significantly diminished, the firm concluded.

The upshot: fourth-quarter NAND fixed transaction prices are expected to remain flat, even as DRAM continues to climb at a double-digit rate.

From spike to plateau

A source in the tech industry framed the current phase as a change in the shape of the price cycle rather than its end. "The era of memory semiconductor prices surging by 40% monthly, as seen in the past, has ended. However, a 'plateau effect,' where high prices are sustained for an extended period, is likely to emerge," the source said.

For memory buyers — PC makers above all — that distinction matters less than the level. With TrendForce now forecasting a 13–18% PC DRAM increase in the fourth quarter and suppliers favoring server allocations, the relief of a slower monthly climb will do little to ease procurement budgets, and the pricing power in this market is set to remain with the manufacturers into next year.