EIA Sees U.S. Power Records Through 2027 as Commercial Use Grows

By Sophie Lindqvist

EIA forecasts total U.S. electricity consumption will reach 4,371 billion kWh in 2027, up from 4,216 billion kWh in 2025. Its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook puts 2026 consumption at 4,306 billion kWh, a forecast gain of about 2.1%, followed by 1.5% growth in 2027.

In the outlook, EIA said U.S. electricity consumption “will hit new records in each of the next two years.” The agency’s consumption totals include retail sales and direct use by commercial and industrial facilities.

What drives the increase?

Commercial-sector retail electricity sales, a category that includes data centers, will rise 3.6% to 1,557 billion kWh in 2026 and 2.8% to 1,600 billion kWh in 2027, according to EIA tables. These gains place commercial consumption ahead of residential consumption in both forecast years.

EIA has said data-center development is driving growth in commercial and industrial demand. The published tables do not isolate a standalone data-center consumption number. That omission limits any attempt to size the load from individual facilities or technologies.

Southern Company offers one measured check on that trend. The utility company said last week that weather-adjusted commercial electricity sales grew 7.3% in the third quarter, largely because of data centers at Georgia Power. That figure covers one utility company, not the national market.

How much power will the grid generate?

Electric-power generation will reach almost 4,390 billion kWh in 2026, according to EIA, a 2.7% increase over the record set in 2025. In September, the agency had forecast 2.2% growth to 4,368 billion kWh. The November estimate marks an upward revision.

EIA attributed 2026 growth to commercial demand and cooling needs during a hot summer. Generation growth then slows to 1.2% in 2027 as forecast milder weather trims residential demand, while commercial and industrial use keeps rising.

Generation and consumption are separate measures. EIA’s almost 4,390 billion kWh generation forecast for 2026 does not replace its 4,306 billion kWh consumption forecast.

Can supply keep pace?

Most of the added generation will come from utility-scale solar, EIA says. Solar capacity should reach 183 GW in 2026 and 223 GW in 2027. Its share of generation will approach 10% in 2027, while natural gas holds close to 40% and coal falls to 15%.

Those forecasts do not make solar the dominant fuel. They also mix two measures: 183 GW and 223 GW describe capacity, while 10%, 40% and 15% describe generation. The outlook provides no utilization rate for the new solar fleet, so nameplate additions do not equal delivered energy.

When does commercial power pass residential use?

On EIA’s figures, commercial sales supply about 59% of growth in total retail sales in 2026 and about 72% in 2027. EIA puts 2026 commercial sales at 1,557 billion kWh, compared with 1,546 billion kWh for homes; 2027 commercial sales reach 1,600 billion kWh, compared with 1,539 billion kWh for homes.

EIA’s table also puts 2027 industrial sales at 1,086 billion kWh. The crossover identifies commercial demand as the main retail growth engine, but the industrial forecast does not identify the semiconductor share.

What will customers pay?

EIA forecasts the average residential electricity price will rise from 17.24 cents per kWh in 2025 to 18.17 cents in 2026 and 18.68 cents in 2027. Commercial prices will rise from 13.37 cents per kWh in 2025 to 14.26 cents in 2027, according to the agency.

Residential sales still decline from 1,546 billion kWh in 2026 to 1,539 billion kWh in 2027 as milder weather trims demand, despite the higher price forecast.

Does grid access threaten data-center growth?

Developers are already seeking power outside conventional grid service. Venture Global pitched 5 GW of off-grid power on Tuesday, while voter pushback against data centers was a theme last week.

The 5 GW pitch is not an EIA demand estimate, and the political reaction does not alter the published numbers. Both show commercial and political pressure around data-center expansion that the forecast does not quantify.

For semiconductor and equipment suppliers, the report confirms data centers as an electrical-load driver, not as a quantified semiconductor market. It offers no fab investment, process-node, wafer-capacity or chip-shipment forecast.

By 2027, EIA expects 223 GW of solar capacity, 1,600 billion kWh of commercial sales and an 18.68-cent residential electricity price. If utility supply cannot keep pace, off-grid proposals gain commercial weight, while local opposition may complicate project timelines. The test is execution: announced capacity must become dependable generation before higher prices and political friction weaken the data-center buildout.