Kazakhstan Bridges Two Rival AI Blocs as Choices Narrow

By Grace Kim

Earlier this year, Kazakhstan’s government signed an investment agreement worth up to $10 billion involving Nvidia to build a “data center valley.”

Can Kazakhstan bridge both AI blocs?

Kazakhstan, a Central Asian nation of about 21 million people, is trying to avoid choosing between Washington and Beijing. Three weeks after AI minister Zhaslan Madiyev visited Washington in June to join a U.S. group strengthening AI supply chains, he went to Shanghai and signed as a founding member of China’s World AI Cooperation Organization, or WAICO.

Experts warn that the window for free choice may be narrowing. Governments may eventually have to choose between the most advanced U.S. chips and technologies or China’s more affordable, open-source systems.

Washington’s Pax Silica can deliver technological partnerships, high-tech manufacturing jobs and a place in global AI supply chains. Membership in WAICO is also meant to give Kazakhstan a voice in regional and global AI standards. Kazakhstan joined 28 other founding countries, including Pakistan and Russia.

Dana Masalimova, a former Kazakh diplomat and scholar at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, said: “Everyone is hedging.” She said Kazakhstan does not want a binary choice and occupies a “very precarious spot.”

Kazakhstan also holds critical minerals essential to AI development and has cheap electricity for data centers. Data-center power has become politically fraught in the United States, increasing the strategic value of that combination.

Chinese foreign direct investment in Kazakhstan reached a record $2.8 billion in 2025, according to local officials. Chinese companies continue to expand there. President Xi Jinping met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in July to broaden Belt and Road cooperation.

What drives Washington and Beijing?

Both superpowers now use access to AI to extend their global influence. President Donald Trump said last month: “whoever wins AI, wins.” U.S. officials and AI companies have accused China of large-scale “distillation,” or extracting capabilities from frontier American models.

Beijing rejects those allegations. It says Washington seeks an AI monopoly while restricting China’s access to cutting-edge AI chips and chipmaking machinery.

Washington has signaled that Pax Silica, with China as its implicit target, is reserved for trusted partners. The U.S. State Department said countries cannot remain trusted Pax Silica partners while advancing a competing vision for “super intelligence,” the Trump administration’s preferred term for AI.

The Chinese embassy in Washington said China and the United States should use their respective strengths rather than guard against each other. It said AI should not be owned by major countries.

Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution’s John L. Thornton China Center, said Beijing needs third countries for an alternative coalition. Washington already has a strong allied network, he said. He described middle powers as swing countries.

Which countries face the hardest choices?

The pressure is clearest in countries holding chips, minerals, energy or valuable positions in global trade.

• Indonesia: The country joined WAICO and holds nickel and copper resources important to AI and other technologies. Mari Pangestu, vice chair of the Indonesian National Economic Council, said Indonesia should be able to join both blocs and choose the best system.
• Singapore: U.S. AI companies are investing in the city-state, where Anthropic is setting up its latest Asia office. Singapore is also considering joining WAICO.
• Saudi Arabia: AI startup Humain unveiled a platform in September built on an open model from a Chinese AI company. The kingdom also has an Nvidia deal to expand AI computing with advanced chips.
• France: The country is developing Mistral as an alternative to the two leading powers. A newly released Mistral model reportedly outperformed some advanced Chinese models.
• Japan: Tokyo remains closely aligned with Washington on strategic and security issues, including advanced semiconductors, trusted AI and standards. Takahiro Tsuchiya, a professor at Kyoto’s University of Foreign Studies, said Japan will not reject affordable Chinese models for lower-risk applications.

Can middle powers stay unaligned?

The U.K. and Germany have substantial economic and military capacity but lack self-developed frontier AI models. Carnegie Endowment analysts Anton Leicht and Sam Winter-Levy said aligning with Washington may be vital for access to U.S. data centers and chip deals. Their access to advanced systems depends on policy choices in Washington and Beijing.

China continues to close the chipmaking and advanced-AI gap, although it still trails leading U.S. capabilities. Alberto Lemma, a research fellow at ODI Global, said China’s open-source approach reduces reliance on U.S. systems and that Beijing funds AI ecosystems in developing countries.

AidData at William & Mary counted official Chinese sector grants and loans for projects that use or enable AI in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries. Major recipients include:

• Nigeria
• Zambia
• Ghana
• Bangladesh
• Senegal
• Cameroon
• Kenya

Recent Pew Research Center results showed that people in middle-income countries are becoming more positive toward China and more trusting of its approach to AI and technology regulation.

Aalok Mehta, director of the Wadhwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said most countries do not want to choose because each technology stack offers advantages and disadvantages. Many cannot compete in frontier-model development and may eventually run out of good options.

Mehta said every country considers AI sovereignty in some form. He also said only the United States and China appear able to build the very large, powerful frontier models at issue.

For swing countries, the next test is commercial: access to chips, data-center capacity and financing as Washington and Beijing narrow the room for dual alignment.