Marvell Up 81% in 2026 Despite Selloff: The Road to $300 by 2029

Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) has gained 81% year to date to $153.93, even as a broad semiconductor selloff dragged the stock down 6% from its prior close. Technology is the weakest sector in the market. The NASDAQ 100 is down 2% as NVIDIA keeps sliding.

The selloff has not erased one of the sector's standout gains of the year. But hitting $300 by 2029 would now require Marvell to gain 94.9% from its current price. That target sits below two numbers already tied to the company. Marvell's 52-week high is $329.73. Its average analyst price target is $310.94.

What powered the 81% run?

The answer is custom AI silicon. Fiscal 2029 is the year management has pointed to for that business to scale the most.

On August 27, Marvell reported Q2 FY2027 results with revenue of $2.739 billion, up 36.5% year over year. Data center sales jumped 46% to $2.17 billion, or 79% of total revenue. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.94, beating the $0.93 estimate.

Management raised its outlook alongside the report:

• Fiscal 2028 revenue guidance now stands at approximately $18 billion.
• That figure is up from a prior target of $16.5 billion.
• The custom business should more than double in fiscal 2028 and "accelerate significantly in fiscal 2029," the company said.

The quarter also brought an expanded custom silicon partnership with Alphabet unit Google. The deal includes a warrant that lets Google acquire up to 7% of Marvell shares, tied to revenue milestones. CEO Matt Murphy said on the call that most of that work is already reflected in next year's outlook. He added that "the big impact would be in 2029 and beyond."

How do Broadcom and AMD compare?

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) is up just 0.1% YTD at $344.39, leaving the custom AI chip leader with little to show for the year. The lag stands out against its fundamentals. Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue rose 221% to $16.7 billion in Q3 FY2026, reported on September 2.

AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) is up 144% YTD to $522.93, a far larger gain than Marvell has posted. Both Broadcom and AMD are trading sharply lower in the chip selloff, so neither peer offers Marvell any shelter.

Marvell operates differently from both. It is a fabless chip designer centered on data center connectivity, including optical digital signal processors, Ethernet switches, and custom chips built to each hyperscaler's design. Broadcom pairs custom accelerators and networking with an infrastructure software arm. AMD sells its own Instinct AI accelerators and EPYC server processors, increasingly bundled into Helios racks.

What is the bull and bear case for $300?

The bulls start with Wall Street's support. Marvell carries 8 Strong Buy ratings, 35 Buy ratings and 4 Hold ratings. At a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21x, the stock offers a valuation bulls can defend if the growth outlook holds.

Murphy framed the stakes directly on the earnings call. In the fiscal 2029 time frame, "on the custom side, these numbers would be a lot larger than anybody has been modeling so far," he said. That comment casts 2029 as Marvell's potential breakout year. It remains a scenario until orders appear in reported results.

The bears have a concrete list of their own. Marvell's disclosures flag:

• Customer concentration.
• Dependence on the data center market.
• Trade restrictions on Chinese customers.
• The risk that customers build chips in-house.

Competition adds pressure. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said on September 2 that his company's custom chip capabilities are "very deep moats for any competitor to cross."

What happens next?

For Marvell, the question is whether custom AI chip orders accelerate the way management described for fiscal 2029. Strong bookings would support the case for $300. Slower orders or more in-house design at hyperscalers could keep the stock well short of it.

Traders can also watch for an easing in the semiconductor selloff that has hit Marvell, Broadcom and AMD alike. A recovery in chip sentiment would let fundamentals drive the stock again. A longer slide could pressure it regardless of orders. Until the selloff ends, a cautious approach to MRVL remains warranted.