Musk Warns Cheap Compute Would Cut SpaceX Revenue. Deutsche Bank Raised Its 2028 Forecast $18 Billion Two Days Later

Elon Musk wrote on Sunday, Nov. 8 that SpaceX revenue "will drop" if computing power becomes plentiful and cheap. Two days later, Deutsche Bank raised its 2028 forecast for the company by $18 billion — on exactly the opposite view: that compute will stay scarce.

Musk's post on X came in reply to a clip of investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who argued SpaceX could cancel its Anthropic compute contract on 90 days' notice and re-sign at double the price. "It works both ways, of course," Musk wrote. "If compute becomes plentiful and cheap, SpaceX revenue will drop. No crying in the casino for either party."

The casino, in Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu's telling, tilts SpaceX's way. Voters backed limits on data-center development in 40 of 41 local ballot contests last week, by Ballotpedia's count, and Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has pledged to halt new approvals until the legislature sets protections for electricity costs and water. Yu expects that pressure to slow construction, mainly in 2028, keeping computing capacity scarce and rental prices higher for longer. He lifted his 2028 EBITDA forecast for SpaceX by $18 billion to $237.1 billion and his revenue forecast by $18.7 billion to $315.3 billion, keeping a Buy rating and a $250 price target.

What's the catch in the bullish math?

Raising a 2028 forecast by $18 billion because of a construction slowdown is a bet that compute stays scarce for two more years and SpaceX gets to name its price. The limits are real, though. Deutsche Bank left any contract repricing out of its numbers. Musk himself says the price cuts both ways. And the bank notes SpaceX's own $24 billion gas plant and computing site in Texas faces the same approval freeze that would protect its existing capacity.

Where has the stock traded since the IPO?

SpaceX sold 555,555,555 Class A shares at $135 on June 11 and opened at $150 on June 12. The stock closed its first day at $160.95, hit a record close of $201.80 on June 16, fell to a low close of $108.27 on Aug. 5, and slid to $123.62 on Nov. 5 after the midterm results. It closed Tuesday at $143.09, up 0.7%, per Fuse's daily price history.

That leaves the shares 6% above the IPO price, 29% below the June record, 12% below a month ago, and 16% above the Nov. 5 close. Market value: about $1.9 trillion. Of 39 analysts in Fuse's count, 31 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 2 a sell, with an average target of $255 — roughly 78% above Tuesday's close.

The third-quarter report behind those targets showed:

• Revenue of $14.575 billion, up 161% year over year
• Net income of $4.4 billion
• Capital spending of $19.593 billion — more than the quarter's revenue
• 1.7 gigawatts of computing capacity at the end of September, with 2.5 to 3 gigawatts expected by year end

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $32 billion, so Deutsche Bank's 2028 revenue forecast is nearly ten times what the company has just booked.

What does the first-day buyer hold now?

Consider a retired 67-year-old engineer with $2.4 million who bought 1,000 shares at $161 on June 12 — a mid-afternoon fill in a day that traded between $149.34 and $176.52. He was up $40,800 four days in, at the June 16 record of $201.80. He was down $52,730 on Aug. 5. At Tuesday's $143.09, his position is worth $143,090 — a loss of $17,910, about 11% — after gaining $19,470 since the Nov. 5 close. If the stock reaches Deutsche Bank's $250, the position is worth $250,000, a gain of $106,910 from Tuesday.

His loss is short-term unless he holds past June 12, 2027. The $17,910 offsets capital gains first; with none, it cuts ordinary income by up to $3,000 a year — worth $660 a year in the 22% bracket, taking six years to use up. Buying back within 30 days disallows the loss, per IRS Publication 550. And at 6.0% of his $2.4 million, the position could fall to zero without changing his retirement — which is why he can afford to hold through Friday.

Why does Friday's launch matter?

Starship Flight 15's window opens Friday, Nov. 13, at 5:45 PM Eastern and runs 75 minutes, pending the FAA license. Booster 22 returns to the tower about six and a half minutes after liftoff. Ship 42 goes to orbit, releases 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and roughly 22 hours later attempts the first tower catch of a ship — never done before. On the Oct. 20 earnings call, Musk put the odds of a successful ship catch as "more likely than not," and on Nov. 6 he wrote that if both catches work, "it will mark the first time that all parts of an orbital rocket return to Earth intact."

Starship is the vehicle the orbital compute plan rides on. A clean double catch moves this stock; a failure costs it. Musk also endorsed a secondhand report that Larry Page expects 99.999% of computing to end up in orbit — a bet every holder carries, whether they think of it that way or not. The stock trades at 46 times forward earnings in Fuse's data, and if the data-center backlash fades or Anthropic and Alphabet find cheaper capacity, the scarcity Yu counts on evaporates. Musk has already said, in writing, what happens to revenue then.