Nebius at $129.49: AI Cloud Stock Tests Microsoft Worry Ahead of Q3

Nebius (NBIS) closed Friday 6 November at $129.49, up $9.12 or 7.58 percent, recovering less than half of Thursday's 14.94 percent plunge. The stock still sits 16 percent below the $154.14 close on 30 October. Third-quarter results arrive Thursday 12 November, before the US open, with a call at 8:00 a.m. ET per the company's 30 October release.

The stakes are concrete. Wall Street expects roughly $907 million of revenue, about 56 percent more than the prior quarter, and a loss near $0.72 per share (MarketBeat, TradingView). The report must also show that Microsoft-related fears behind Thursday's drop have not touched Nebius's contract with the software giant, worth $17.4 billion over five years and up to $19.4 billion.

Friday's session traded between $122.62 and $136.87 on about 24.5 million shares, and the stock changed hands near $130.95 after hours (StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance). The 52-week range runs from $73.52 to $299.86; Friday's close sits 56.8 percent below that high.

Why the stock fell, and why it bounced

A Bloomberg report said Microsoft had tightened oversight of data center projects run by neocloud providers, the specialist AI cloud firms it rents capacity from. Nebius was named among them. The report disclosed no change to its Microsoft contract — a fact worth repeating, because the market priced one in anyway.

Friday's rebound came from a rival's numbers, not from Nebius itself. IREN said its AI cloud revenue nearly tripled from the prior quarter to $200 million, and contract pricing rose 11 percent on three-year deals and 12 percent on five-year deals (TIKR). One IREN five-year deal at roughly $22 million per megawatt falls inside the $20 million to $25 million range Nebius management quoted for its August deals. Jefferies strategist Jane Gibbons called the sell-off "reactionary" (TIKR).

IREN's report carried a warning too. The company pushed its target of more than $4 billion in annualized revenue from year-end to January, after a design change requested by Microsoft. That slippage is the obvious risk template for Nebius.

What the third quarter has to show

Second-quarter revenue was $582 million, up 454 percent year on year, with adjusted EBITDA of $236 million (GuruFocus, The Next Web). The $907 million consensus implies 56 percent sequential growth. Estimates are not tightly grouped: BusinessQuant shows about $928 million; a Benzinga-compiled figure cited by Tickeron is about $937 million.

Three items may matter more than the quarter's revenue:

• Full-year guidance. Management reaffirmed 2026 revenue of $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 40 percent in August. The analyst estimate of $3.35 billion (StockAnalysis) sits near the top of that range — leave little room for error.
• Run rate. Annualized revenue was $3 billion at the end of June against a year-end goal of $7 billion to $9 billion. Most of that jump depends on capacity coming online in the second half.
• Spending and funding. The 2026 capital plan is $20 billion to $25 billion. In October, Nebius arranged a Citi-led 364-day facility of more than $3.5 billion at Term SOFR plus 2.75 points (Boerse Express). Any comment on Microsoft will be read closely.

What Wall Street is saying

Twenty-two analysts carry a "Buy" consensus with an average 12-month target of $278.05, ranging from $84 to $410 (StockAnalysis, updated 4 November). Those targets predate Thursday's fall. Recent moves point down: Citi's Tyler Radke cut to $265 from $324 on 4 November; Piper Sandler's James Fish cut to $185 from $237 on 21 October; Bank of America's Tal Liani reiterated $310 on 22 October. TIKR puts the stock at 5.4 times forward sales against a five-year average of 10.6 times.

Key levels into the print

• Bear, $113: Thursday's intraday low, about 12.7 percent below Friday's close; needs a miss or a slipped run-rate goal.
• Base, $120–$142: Thursday's $120.37 close to Wednesday's $141.52; consensus revenue with guidance intact.
• Bull, $154: The 30 October close, about 19 percent above Friday; needs a beat plus firm reassurance on Microsoft.

These are reference levels, not forecasts.

What to watch this week

• $120.37: Holding above Thursday's close keeps the bounce intact.
• Tuesday 10 November: US October CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET (BLS); December Fed hike odds sit near 80 percent (CME FedWatch via GoldSilver). CoreWeave also reports Tuesday — the closest read-across.
• Thursday 12 November: Nebius results and call.
• 17 November: Nvidia results. Nvidia invested $2.0 billion in Nebius in March (TIKR).

Support sits at $122.62, $120.37 and near $113; resistance at $136.87, $141.52 and $154.14. If the report delivers consensus and holds the run-rate goal, the week's loss could reverse; if capacity timing slips as IREN's did, $113 stops being a floor.