Nebius Bets $40 Billion on 2027 While Microsoft Slips Away

Nebius told investors on Thursday that it plans to spend $40 billion in 2027 — far above Wall Street expectations — and said prepayments plus asset-backed loans against customer contracts should cover up to 85% of a capex envelope it pegged at $40 to $45 billion. The number is enormous. The plan, however, rests on projects already showing cracks, and the stock paid for it: shares closed the day down 17%.

The Amsterdam-based neocloud, which sells AI compute to hyperscalers, wants to finance the buildout by leaning on customer prepayments and loans backed by those same contracts. In effect, it borrows against the future value of data centers to pay for constructing them. It works when capacity arrives on time. It strains when it doesn't.

"Building at this scale is hard, and delays are part of our industry right now," CEO Arkady Volozh said during the earnings call. "We are not immune."

Why is the Microsoft delay so costly?

Microsoft, one of Nebius's largest customers, holds a contract worth up to $19.4 billion for AI computing capacity at a Vineland, New Jersey data center — a site now months behind schedule. Only just over half of the Microsoft capacity is planned for delivery by year's end; the rest slips to Q2 2027. The original tranches were meant to go live in 2025 and 2026, and the contract carries financial penalties for late delivery. Per Nebius's own summary, Microsoft can terminate affected service after a grace period if dates are missed and no alternative capacity is offered.

The operator of that site, DataOne, "decided to wind down the temporary generation faster than it was expected," said chief product and infrastructure officer Andrey Korolenko, as the facility switches to Bloom Energy fuel cells. The switch wasn't entirely voluntary. In August, the investigative outlet Floodlight counted at least 45 natural gas generators running at the DataOne site without permits; New Jersey regulators fined the facility $1.1 million and found the generator use violated federal law. DataOne also faces a noise-complaint lawsuit from nearby residents over a constant hum.

Is Microsoft cooling on neoclouds?

The timing is awkward. Bloomberg reported last week that Microsoft is tightening oversight of third-party-run projects — including those of Nebius, IREN and Nscale — and debating whether to sign new agreements at all. Microsoft sent employees to the New Jersey site, per Bloomberg. It also declined an option to more than double its Nscale agreement for a Texas data center and walked away from anchor status at Nscale's planned Essex site after power delays.

Microsoft's own quarterly report noted capex came in below expectations because of third-party delays. For a company like Nebius, whose financing depends on contracted repayments, a customer with a growing habit of pulling back changes the math: costs pile up while revenue slips.

Nebius says Microsoft "has been part of the planning process" for the new dates, though it did not say whether Redmond formally agreed to them. Microsoft hasn't publicly canceled anything. TechCrunch has contacted Nebius, Microsoft and DataOne for comment.

Can the numbers still hold?

Chief revenue officer Marc Boroditsky said the Microsoft and Meta deals both arrived with significant prepayment, long before delivery, and that Q3's new deals carry prepayments exceeding the cost of the capacity behind them. CFO Maria Del Dado Alonso Sanchez named Microsoft and Meta as contracts financeable through prepayments and asset-backed structures. Boroditsky added Nebius could "tap prepayments to shore up any additional cash requirements." The company ended the quarter with $7.4 billion in cash.

The quarter itself was loud. Revenue hit $981 million, up 571% year over year, though roughly a third came from a one-time payment tied to a new partnership model. Nebius cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million to $3 billion, blaming delays at third-party sites such as New Jersey. For 2027, it guided to $12 to $13 billion in revenue and said it expects pre-tax break-even by the fourth quarter of that year.

The company insists the delays come only from sites it doesn't control, and that data centers it builds itself are arriving on time or early — facilities it says will supply most new capacity from 2027. Whether that self-built pipeline lands fast enough to keep a $19.4 billion anchor customer, and a $40 billion financing plan, intact will decide the neocloud playbook's credibility.