Nvidia Exit Odds Reach 52% After New Huang Allegations

By Sophie Lindqvist

How likely is Jensen Huang’s exit?

Polymarket traders put the odds of Huang announcing his resignation or being removed at 52% by today, rising to 76% by year-end. That market price is not a corporate announcement.

Bullish analyst Dan Ives said: “Jensen has created a black eye moment for himself and Nvidia and now has created a spider web of complexity.” Ives put Nvidia’s fair value at $225 without Huang, a 25% haircut from the $300 he assigns with Huang at the helm.

He also described $225 as 35% upside from current premarket levels. That estimate reflects an analyst scenario, not company guidance or an observed post-succession price.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Nvidia’s board is preparing to remove Huang and expects to meet soon over allegations of an affair with a subordinate. The podcast framed Huang’s departure or removal as possible as soon as that day. No board vote, resignation letter or Nvidia disclosure appeared in the report.

The Kobeissi Letter opposed removal: “There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang.” It also urged a pause and consultation with shareholders.

Polymarket odds reached 58% by Friday and 71% by Nov. 30. Those prices show trader expectations, not a confirmed succession timetable.

What do the allegations establish?

The latest allegations surfaced Wednesday. According to The New York Times, Kimberly Powell, Nvidia’s vice president of healthcare, and Huang appeared affectionate on video at a San Jose hotel. The footage showed them during an Nvidia conference in March.

The podcast said Huang had previously admitted an affair with Alice Huang, an executive at Singapore-based data center company Megaspeed. According to the podcast, U.S. intelligence agencies have identified Alice Huang as a suspected Chinese operative.

The new report concerned Powell; the earlier admission involved Alice Huang. The podcast did not present a board finding, an independent investigation or the evidentiary basis for the intelligence assessment. Neither development establishes how the board will vote.

Who could replace Huang?

Prediction-market traders favor insiders. Ian Buck, vice president of hyperscale and high-performance computing, and CFO Colette Kress each carried roughly one-in-three odds on Polymarket and Kalshi as favorites.

Former Apple CEO Tim Cook and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt each held 5% odds. The board is weighing an interim CEO before a wider search and is working with an executive search firm.

No candidate received an appointment in the report. The podcast did not disclose whether the board had interviewed candidates. It described search activity as underway, not completed, and gave no timetable for a decision.

These percentages measure market sentiment, not appointments.

What is the market pricing?

Nvidia shares were down another 6% in premarket trading. AMD and Broadcom both rose before the opening bell, with gains elsewhere in chips partly mitigating Nvidia’s decline.

The relative move matters because leadership uncertainty can affect a semiconductor leader’s competitive position in customer relationships, investor perception and executive hiring. The report offered no customer, roadmap or financial data to test whether succession had altered Nvidia’s AI position.

Nasdaq 100 futures were lower after a technology rally in the previous session. Treasury yields changed little a day after the bond market closed for Veterans Day.

What happens next?

The Kobeissi Letter argued that Huang’s departure would be a net negative for Nvidia and the AI revolution. That is an opinion, not a quantified commercial forecast.

Elon Musk said hiring Huang would be an honor, according to the podcast. His post does not establish negotiations, acceptance or any timetable for a departure.

The calendar adds two market variables. The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. The October Existing Home Sales release follows at 10:00 a.m. Neither release directly resolves Nvidia’s succession question. Both can affect rates and risk appetite.

If the board acts, AMD and Broadcom’s relative performance will test whether investors see a durable leadership shift at Nvidia.