Nvidia’s $108B Outlook Excludes China as Washington Pressures

By Grace Kim

Nvidia’s fiscal 2027 third-quarter revenue outlook of approximately $108 billion excludes Data Center compute revenue from China. The company reported $96.2 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 106% year over year. That disclosure arrives during growing congressional scrutiny of CEO Jensen Huang and Nvidia’s China business.

Three Republican House committee chairs requested a closed-door briefing with Huang on November 18. Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren continues to seek public testimony. The two tracks threaten Nvidia’s access to China’s artificial-intelligence market despite Huang’s relationship with President Donald Trump.

What is Congress asking Jensen Huang?

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast, China Select Committee Chairman John Moolenaar and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rick Crawford sent Huang a November 4 letter. They requested a joint briefing on Nvidia’s security protocols and his interactions with Alice Huang, an executive at Singapore-based Megaspeed.

The request followed reports that Chinese intelligence recruited Alice Huang and that she maintained contacts with Nvidia’s chief executive. The lawmakers want to determine whether those interactions created risks involving sensitive American technology or information.

Their schedule is specific:

• November 4: The three committee chairs sent Huang the joint-briefing request.
• November 11: Huang must confirm his availability or propose an alternative date.
• November 18: The proposed closed-door briefing would take place.

New reporting about a purported U.S. intelligence memorandum concerning Huang’s relationship with the Megaspeed executive has added to the questions. The intelligence allegations have produced no criminal charges against either man. The congressional request also does not establish wrongdoing by Nvidia or Huang.

Nvidia said: “Huang routinely meets executives from companies using its products.” The chipmaker also said it “receives government notifications about entities of concern and acts on that information.”

Could export controls tighten?

Republican-backed proposals could impose further restrictions before any relaxation of existing China controls. Those limits could also restrict Nvidia’s ability to benefit from future easing. The commercial stakes extend well beyond Huang’s testimony before Congress.

The AI OVERWATCH Act appeared in the Senate’s fiscal 2027 defense-authorization legislation. The proposal would reinforce restrictions on exports of the most advanced AI chips to countries of concern for 18 months. It would also require additional Commerce Department certifications before certain other exports could proceed.

A separate bipartisan initiative would establish location-tracking requirements for advanced processors. It would require reporting when products are diverted or tampered with. Neither measure is final law. Provisions could still be negotiated into defense legislation during the current congressional session or reconsidered by the incoming Congress.

Huang has repeatedly challenged the effectiveness of broad export restrictions. In earlier remarks, he said, “China already possesses substantial computing capacity.” He questioned whether limiting American chip sales would materially prevent Chinese developers from advancing their AI capabilities.

The disagreement is straightforward. Restrictions could protect American technological leadership. They could also encourage Chinese customers to adopt domestic alternatives and reduce Nvidia’s future sales opportunities.

What changes under Democratic control?

Democrats secured projected majorities in both congressional chambers in the November 3 elections. That position could give them control of key oversight committees when Congress convenes in January 2027. Committee leadership arrangements remain unsettled.

Warren, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly questioned Nvidia’s China operations and export-control compliance. In June, she invited Huang to testify publicly about those obligations and Nvidia’s business in China. Huang declined. Warren has argued that the company should answer questions in an open congressional setting.

Democratic control could give Warren greater influence over hearings and investigative priorities. Democrats are also preparing broader AI legislation covering model safety, corporate accountability and the financial implications of data-center expansion.

Trump retains significant influence over executive-branch export policy. He also retains authority to veto legislation. Bipartisan concern about China could still increase pressure on Nvidia regardless of Huang’s relationship with the White House.

What does the pressure mean for Nvidia?

Nvidia enters this period with substantial demand for its AI processors. Uncertainty persists over how much of that demand the company can serve in China. Current guidance does not include China Data Center compute revenue, so additional restrictions could reduce future sales opportunities without immediately changing the excluded revenue base.

Investors are also monitoring Nvidia’s post-election share-price decline alongside other AI semiconductor stocks. Regulatory risk now sits alongside AI infrastructure demand as investors assess the company’s next earnings report.

Nvidia will release third-quarter results on November 17, one day before the proposed briefing. That one-day sequence separates two tests. The results should clarify the strength of AI infrastructure demand. The congressional process could reveal more about Nvidia’s security controls and political exposure.

The immediate questions are whether lawmakers advance binding export restrictions and whether Huang accepts the briefing request. Neither outcome has been determined. Tighter China controls could redirect future demand toward domestic alternatives, leaving Nvidia exposed to policy decisions beyond its commercial control.