ON Semiconductor's $29.4 Billion Earnings Test and Its Split Record

Sophie Lindqvist

ON Semiconductor (Nasdaq: ON) is scheduled to report earnings on Monday, November 2, 2026, with a market value of about $29.4 billion, according to Trefis.

Over the last 12 months, the company generated $6.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in operating profit. Net income reached $630 million.

The $29.4 billion market-value figure is approximate. The three financial figures are historical, not forecasts. Trefis says the share reaction will turn on how results and guidance compare with expectations.

No consensus forecast appears in the analysis. Nor does it provide capacity, process-node, wafer-size, product-family, end-market or pricing assumptions. The source supports a study of stock behavior, not a semiconductor operating forecast.

What does the earnings setup look like?

ON Semiconductor will report on Monday, November 2, 2026. The date makes the next result the focus, but the past five years provide the statistical baseline.

Across 20 earnings releases in five years, ON recorded positive one-day returns 13 times and negative returns seven times. The positive rate was 65%. Over the last three years, the positive rate rose to 73% across 11 releases.

The median positive one-day return was 4.1%. The median negative return was -8.4%. The largest moves were 14.4% higher and 21.8% lower. Negative moves were less frequent, but their median loss was larger.

Trefis measures each one-day return from the last close before the release. The 5D and 21D columns extend the review to five and 21 trading days.

Earnings date	1D	5D	21D
8/3/2026	0.5%	-0.8%	-9.6%
5/4/2026	0.6%	5.1%	31.3%
2/9/2026	3.5%	10.5%	-9.0%
11/3/2025	0.8%	-4.5%	2.8%
8/4/2025	-15.6%	-16.1%	-13.9%
5/5/2025	-8.4%	-2.2%	13.0%
2/10/2025	-8.2%	1.1%	-16.4%
10/28/2024	1.4%	-0.4%	1.6%
7/29/2024	11.5%	-3.2%	6.6%
4/29/2024	4.1%	3.4%	8.2%
2/5/2024	9.5%	14.1%	8.7%
10/30/2023	-21.8%	-18.3%	-17.3%
7/31/2023	2.5%	-2.6%	-10.9%
5/1/2023	8.9%	12.9%	16.7%
2/6/2023	-0.6%	3.6%	-2.7%
10/31/2022	-9.0%	-6.4%	4.8%
8/1/2022	-4.7%	1.3%	4.1%
5/2/2022	6.7%	5.8%	16.4%
2/7/2022	8.4%	2.7%	-2.8%
11/1/2021	14.4%	23.0%	27.8%

The longer windows show a more mixed record. Five-day returns were positive 11 times and negative nine times. Twenty-one-day returns were positive 12 times and negative eight times.

Statistic	1D	5D	21D
Positive results	13	11	12
Negative results	7	9	8
Median positive	4.1%	5.1%	8.5%
Median negative	-8.4%	-3.2%	-10.3%
Maximum positive	14.4%	23.0%	31.3%
Maximum negative	-21.8%	-18.3%	-17.3%

Does the first-day move predict the next month?

Trefis asks a narrower question: does the initial reaction continue? It defines correlation near 1 as continuation, near -1 as reversal and near 0 as no consistent pattern.

History	1D versus next 5D	1D versus next 21D	5D versus next 21D
Five years	-0.35	-0.23	-0.06
Three years	-0.47	-0.20	-0.29

Trefis wrote that “all are below 0.40 in absolute terms, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.” The statement applies even to the largest coefficient, -0.47 for the three-year first-day versus next-five-day comparison.

That -0.47 result hints at partial reversal, but it rests on only 11 releases. Over five years, the correlations were weaker. A 65% positive first-day rate therefore does not establish a dependable trading signal.

Does NXP foreshadow ON's move?

NXP Semiconductors usually reports about six days before ON. It had already reported this season, and its stock fell 0.7% on the day after its October 27 report.

Trefis compared NXP's one-day response with ON's response to the report that followed. The correlation was 0.00. A value closer to 1 would indicate that NXP foreshadowed ON more reliably; zero indicates no consistent link in the sample.

ON earnings date	ON 1D	NXP 1D
8/3/2026	0.5%	-7.0%
5/4/2026	0.6%	25.5%
2/9/2026	3.5%	-4.5%
11/3/2025	0.8%	-3.9%
8/4/2025	-15.6%	-0.1%
5/5/2025	-8.4%	-6.9%
2/10/2025	-8.2%	-1.1%
7/29/2024	11.5%	-7.6%
7/31/2023	2.5%	4.3%
2/6/2023	-0.6%	2.7%
8/1/2022	-4.7%	0.2%
2/7/2022	8.4%	1.3%
Correlation	—	0.00

The examples differ sharply. ON fell 15.6% on August 4, 2025, while NXP slipped 0.1%. ON rose 0.6% on May 4, 2026 after NXP jumped 25.5%. The aggregate correlation captures the lack of a stable relationship.

What does the diversification argument establish?

Trefis notes that an earnings release can move one stock sharply in either direction. It says, “A diversified portfolio spreads that risk.” Its High Quality portfolio holds about 30 quality businesses and uses rules-based rebalancing.

The portfolio has a track record of outperforming a benchmark combining the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000. The source gives no return figure, measurement period or portfolio allocation. Its performance claim cannot be tested from the material provided.

That caveat does not change the ON statistics. They show that positive earnings reactions have been common, while timing and peer signals have remained weak.

For November 2, results and guidance must overcome a statistically weak forecasting setup: 65% positive first-day frequency does not establish post-move persistence, NXP correlation is 0.00, and the source offers no capacity or pricing assumptions. The next share reaction will therefore depend more on the disclosed outlook than on the historical positive-return frequency.