Qualcomm Forecasts $15 Billion Data Center Business by 2029

Qualcomm told investors it expects roughly $650 million in data center revenue in the first quarter of 2027, the opening figure in a forecast that climbs to $5 billion by the end of 2027 and $15 billion by 2029.

The company disclosed the targets on its Q4 2026 earnings call. That timeline matters. The figures are forecasts, not booked revenue. They rest on supply agreements Qualcomm has announced but not yet converted into shipments at scale.

The pivot follows a sharp contraction in Qualcomm's core market. Global smartphone sales fell around 20 percent compared with 2025, a decline that has pushed the company to find a second leg for its business. Qualcomm's total revenue for fiscal 2026 was $10.4 billion, which puts the data center projections in context. The $15 billion figure for 2029, if realized, would exceed the company's entire revenue base today.

Who are Qualcomm's data center customers?

Two partnerships anchor the effort, both announced earlier in 2026:

• Amazon: Qualcomm is collaborating with the company on multiple generations of chips for AWS data centers, its cloud infrastructure arm.
• Meta: Qualcomm and Meta signed a strategic multi-generation agreement, announced in June 2026, covering AI data center silicon.

Both deals are described as multi-generation commitments. That structure signals longer design cycles than one-off chip orders. It also ties Qualcomm's data center fortunes to two of the largest buyers of AI compute in the market.

What do the numbers say about the bet?

The revenue ramp Qualcomm outlined is steep by any standard. Moving from $650 million in a single quarter to a $5 billion annualized pace by the end of 2027 implies rapid volume shipments within roughly a year of the first material revenue.

Against a $10.4 billion total for 2026, the trajectory would make data centers Qualcomm's dominant business by decade's end if the smartphone unit does not recover. The company framed the segment as the main growth engine on the call, with the AI data center business positioned as the answer to weakening handset demand.

Investors should distinguish the layers of certainty here. The $10.4 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue is a reported figure from the company's earnings release. The smartphone decline of about 20 percent is an observed market trend. The $650 million, $5 billion and $15 billion figures are Qualcomm's own forecasts, and the company did not present them as commitments from Amazon or Meta.

Why does this matter for the chip supply chain?

Qualcomm's move places it in direct competition with the incumbents supplying AI accelerators to hyperscale data centers. Amazon and Meta already buy at enormous volume, and adding Qualcomm as a multi-generation supplier gives them a second source of custom silicon options.

For Qualcomm, the strategy hedges a handset market that just hit its weakest levels in years. A successful ramp would diversify revenue away from the segment that built the company. A failed one would leave it exposed to a smartphone recovery it cannot control.

The first hard test arrives with the first quarter of 2027. Qualcomm's own guidance of $650 million in data center revenue for that quarter will show whether the Amazon and Meta agreements are translating into shipped silicon, and at what pace toward the $5 billion end-of-2027 target.