Retail Traders Buy Record $111M of Nvidia in 30 Minutes

Retail traders bought a net $111 million of Nvidia shares in the first 30 minutes of Thursday's session — more than 40 times a normal open and the largest opening bid from individual investors Vanda Research has ever recorded, on the morning founder Jensen Huang left the company. At 11:59 a.m. Eastern the stock traded at $165.25, down 4.9% on the day but 11% above the session low of $148.80, according to Vanda data cited by CNBC.

The record bid looks smaller once you size the tape. CNBC's volume counter showed 179 million shares traded by 9:52 a.m. and 216 million by 10:04 a.m. — roughly $30 billion of stock changing hands in that half hour. The retail net bid came to well under 1% of it.

The analysts cutting the stock aren't below the market either. Stifel's new target is $205; Baird and Bernstein sit at $200. All three sit more than 20% above where Nvidia trades.

Who bought Nvidia stock, and who is underwater?

Thursday's buyers are the first of the week in profit. Exchange data show Nvidia closed at $178.67 on Monday, $168.89 on Tuesday and $173.73 on Wednesday. Vanda said it was the most heavily bought security in its universe on each of those days, absorbing 61% of all retail net buying this week. Every one of those closes sits above the current price. Anyone who bought in Thursday's first half hour paid between $148.80 and roughly $163.

The real damage sits in leveraged products. Retail investors poured $42.5 million into six 2x long Nvidia ETFs from Monday through Wednesday — one of the largest three-day inflows on record, per Vanda. One of them, GraniteShares' 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF, opened Thursday at $15.04 against a prior close of $20.40, a 26% gap, and was still down 10% at 11:59 a.m., CNBC data showed.

On Hyperliquid, open interest in the NVDA perpetual fell 22% between 10:04 a.m. and noon — from 3.89 million contracts to 3.03 million — while the price rose. Positions were being closed into the bounce, not added.

What is Wall Street saying?

At least 10 analysts turned more bearish on Nvidia this week, according to FactSet figures reported by CNBC. The cuts were steep:

• Stifel: $205, down from $315, buy rating kept
• Baird: $200, down from $500, moved to neutral
• Bernstein: $200

"We find it hard to advocate stepping in here in size as there will no doubt be more allegations to come," Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon wrote in a Thursday note. KeyBanc's John Vinh wrote that Huang's departure "warrants a higher risk premium and lower valuation multiple for the stock."

The company's answer is operational. Interim chief Colette Kress will gather the executive team at the Santa Clara headquarters on Thursday to discuss leadership and continuity plans, a source told CNBC.

What should brokers watch?

For brokers, the exposure is concentration. One stock taking 61% of a week's retail net buying, with leverage layered on top, ties client books to two dated events:

• Nvidia reports fiscal third-quarter results on Tuesday, 17 November
• Huang testifies to Congress before Thanksgiving, House Foreign Affairs chair Brian Mast told reporters Thursday

That combination makes the case for keeping margin on Nvidia-linked products wide through both dates.

The unusual part: the cut targets and the retail bid point the same way. The disagreement is about size and timing, not direction. If Tuesday's numbers arrive without a new demand hedge, the $200 targets become the reference and Thursday's buyers will have set the low. If another allegation lands first, as Rasgon expects, $148.80 is the level every leveraged long has to defend.