Sandisk Trades at 3.6x Forward Earnings After NAND Blowout

Sandisk closed at $886.51 on November 9, up 6.16% on the session, and now trades near $861 — a price that leaves the pure-play NAND flash maker at a forward P/E of 3.62 and a trailing P/E of roughly 7.1. The average analyst target sits at $2,047, implying about 131% upside from current levels, even after the stock has fallen more than 60% from its June high.

The discount is not for lack of numbers. Sandisk's October 29 earnings print showed why the bulls keep showing up.

What did the October quarter deliver?

Revenue hit $11.03 billion, up 378% year over year and 23% sequentially. Non-GAAP EPS reached $49.51. Gross margin printed at 85% — a figure few semiconductor companies outside the memory oligopoly can touch.

Data center did the heavy lifting. Segment sales reached $4.8 billion, up 61% quarter over quarter, and drove roughly 88% of the sequential revenue gain. Management said on the call that the growth split about 60/40 between volume and pricing — evidence that this is a genuine pricing cycle, not just units flying out the door.

Why are the margins holding?

Discipline, mostly. Supply remains tight by design, and management has locked in demand well ahead of delivery: roughly half of fiscal 2027 bits and two-thirds of fiscal 2028 bits are already committed under multi-year AI agreements. That's the kind of visibility equipment makers usually enjoy and memory makers rarely do.

The corporate structure helps too. Sandisk became a pure-play NAND company after spinning off from Western Digital in February 2025, and margins expanded hard once data-center volume took over the mix.

The balance sheet backs the story. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow runs near $17 billion. Cash stands at about $5.1 billion. Debt is minimal; the company is in a net cash position. It also bought back $5 billion of stock in the quarter.

What happens on November 20?

An 8-for-1 stock split, announced alongside earnings, takes effect. Additional shares go out after the close on November 19, and split-adjusted trading begins November 20. The per-share figures investors quote today — including that $49.51 EPS — will divide by eight accordingly.

Institutional ownership is heavy. BlackRock holds roughly 10.3 million shares, about 7% of the company. Vanguard owns about 9.7 million and FMR about 7.9 million. Institutions control 74–84% of the float, depending on the measure.

Is the pullback a buying opportunity?

The bull case, as laid out by the TradingView analysis that flagged the setup, rests on four points:

• Forward P/E of 3.62, a PEG ratio near 0.09, heavy free cash flow and a net cash position
• AI bit growth still projected near 40% for calendar 2027
• An average analyst target of $2,047, implying roughly 131% upside
• A stock down more than 60% from its June high that has stabilized in the $800–900 zone since the beat

The trader behind the analysis frames the entry at $861.00, with a first target of $1,382 and a second at $1,877.

Two catalysts sit on the calendar. Split-adjusted trading begins November 20. Fiscal Q2 results land in early 2027, with guidance already set at $12.2–12.6 billion in revenue and $55–57 in pre-split EPS — ranges that, if hit, would keep the pricing cycle arithmetic working in shareholders' favor.

The open question is whether a 60% drawdown priced in a memory downturn that the locked-in bit contracts simply don't show up in the guidance yet. November 20 and the next print will give the first answers.