SEMI CEO Ajit Manocha expects the global semiconductor market to reach $3 trillion by 2035, according to a report by The Elec. The figure comes from the head of the industry's main equipment and materials trade body. It frames a decade-long growth horizon rather than a near-term forecast.

The $3 trillion target is a headline number, and Manocha's position gives it weight. SEMI represents equipment makers, materials suppliers and fab tool vendors across the supply chain. Its leadership tracks orders, fab construction and materials shipments ahead of chip revenue. A forecast from that vantage point reflects what suppliers see building in the pipeline.

How large is the jump from today?

The projection implies a substantial expansion from the market's current scale. Chip industry revenue has already passed the $500 billion mark in recent years and pushed toward $600 billion during the artificial intelligence boom. Reaching $3 trillion by 2035 would mean roughly a fivefold increase over little more than a decade. That pace exceeds the long-run historical growth rate of the semiconductor industry, which has averaged high single digits annually over multi-decade periods.

Sustained double-digit compound growth would be required to close the gap. Manocha is effectively betting that demand drivers such as AI, automotive electronics and pervasive computing will lift the industry onto a steeper trajectory than its historical baseline.

What sits behind the number?

Forecasts of this kind rest on demand from several directions at once. Data center buildouts for AI training and inference are consuming advanced logic and memory at record rates. Electric vehicles carry far more semiconductor content than combustion cars. Industrial automation, edge computing and energy infrastructure add further layers of demand.

SEMI's own capacity data point the same direction. The trade body has documented a global fab construction boom, with more than one hundred new facilities in the pipeline across multiple regions in recent years. Government incentive programs in the United States, the European Union, Japan and India have underwritten much of that construction.

What does the forecast mean for the supply chain?

A $3 trillion chip market implies proportionate growth in the inputs SEMI's members sell. Equipment, materials and fab construction would all need to scale. That carries consequences for capacity planning, since fabs and tool orders run years ahead of chip shipments.

The forecast also has a geopolitical dimension. The current wave of fab investment is deliberately distributed across regions, driven as much by security policy as by demand. Where that capacity lands will shape trade flows and pricing power through the period Manocha covers.

How should readers treat the number?

It is a projection, not a booked order. Decade-long industry forecasts have a mixed record. Near the last cycle's peak, similarly expansive outlooks circulated before the market entered a downturn in 2023. Supply gluts, trade restrictions and macroeconomic shocks can each bend the curve.

Even so, the direction of travel has broad support. Most major chipmakers and several financial institutions have published long-run forecasts that anticipate the industry passing $1 trillion in annual revenue before 2030. Manocha's figure extends that consensus by another decade and another step change.

SEMI has not released the detailed assumptions behind the 2035 estimate in the reported remarks. The forecast should therefore be read as the industry body's leadership case for sustained expansion. It will be tested against annual capacity additions, equipment orders and end-market demand as the decade progresses.