Morningstar says two storylines could lift TSMC's stock when the foundry reports its next earnings: ongoing talks with Tesla and the expansion of its manufacturing footprint in Texas. That's the framing the Chicago-based research firm laid out in its earnings preview, and it's a notably bullish one for a stock that trades on capacity commitments more than sentiment.

The first catalyst is automotive. Morningstar points to discussions between TSMC and Tesla as a potential growth driver, though it stops short of quantifying any deal value, wafer volume or timeline. The talks themselves are the story: Tesla, the world's highest-profile EV maker, deepening its silicon relationship with the world's largest contract chipmaker would shift foundry demand in a segment — automotive — that TSMC has been courting for years.

The second is geographic. TSMC's Texas expansion, centered on its Fab 21 site in Phoenix's wider US build-out narrative and the company's commitments in Arizona, gives the foundry a larger US manufacturing base at a moment when Washington's subsidy regime rewards exactly that. Morningstar argues the expansion could strengthen the investment case, without publishing specific capacity figures or capex numbers in the preview.

Why does this matter for the stock?

Morningstar's core claim is simple. Earnings season for TSMC isn't just about the quarter's numbers — it's about what management signals on customer wins and US capacity. A confirmed Tesla engagement, or concrete progress on Texas, would count as new information the market hasn't priced.

What the preview doesn't do is assign probabilities. There's no revenue estimate attached to the Tesla talks, no wafer-per-month figure for the Texas site, and no date by which either catalyst must materialize. Readers should treat both as potential, not confirmed, developments.

What's the context?

TSMC has spent the past several years diversifying production beyond Taiwan, with its Arizona complex the flagship of that effort and Texas-related expansion adding to its US footprint. Geopolitical pressure — export controls on China and US incentives for domestic fabs — has pushed every major chipmaker toward American capacity, and TSMC's build-out is the largest of them.

Automotive silicon sits at the intersection of that trend. EV makers need advanced-process chips for driver assistance and power management, and TSMC wants that demand on its leading nodes rather than at rivals like Samsung Foundry.

Morningstar's preview, in short, bets that the earnings call gives investors something concrete on both fronts: a Tesla relationship with numbers behind it, and Texas capacity with a schedule attached. Until management speaks, both remain catalysts on paper — and the stock's next move likely hinges on which one, if either, gets confirmed.