TSMC is evaluating a multi-fab campus in Texas that would add tens of billions of dollars to its multiyear U.S. expansion, with each fab on the site requiring at least $20 billion if the project proceeds, according to people familiar with the planning who asked not to be named because the details are not public.

The talks are early, and the entire plan hinges on one Washington variable: whether U.S. lawmakers extend an advanced-manufacturing tax credit that expires at the end of this year, one person familiar with the discussions said. An extension has not yet found a clear legislative path, though Senator Mike Crapo of Idaho and Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon have publicly affirmed their commitment to it.

TSMC declined to discuss the deliberations. "We have no comment on market rumors," the company said in a text message.

The demand-side driver

The potential Texas buildout responds to a hard commercial fact: North American customers accounted for more than 75% of TSMC's wafer sales so far this year, as AI chip makers such as Nvidia and AMD book large volumes of cutting-edge capacity. The AI rush has stretched available capacity. Deputy Co-Chief Operating Officer Cliff Hou said last month that TSMC has roughly doubled its planned equipment purchases over the past year to keep up.

TSMC has already committed $265 billion to its Arizona site, where several fabrication plants are under development. A Texas campus would stack additional fabs — each carrying a minimum $20 billion price tag — on top of that effort.

The global footprint

Outside the United States, TSMC is building plants in Kumamoto, Japan, with Sony Group and pursuing an early-stage project in Saxony, Germany. The company has also held recent discussions with officials in Singapore seeking chip investments — a detail not previously reported. The Singapore Economic Development Board declined to comment.

Singapore already hosts several chip factories and Asia-Pacific hubs for major AI developers such as Meta Platforms. The city-state has seen AI fuel growth and aims to take a bigger role in the technology's value chain.

For most of its history as Asia's most valuable company, TSMC concentrated manufacturing in Taiwan to streamline management and labor. That posture is shifting, but with a stated limit: Taiwanese officials have repeatedly said — and TSMC executives agree — that the most advanced R&D will stay in Taiwan, because concentrating it there remains the most efficient way to push the technology forward.

Taiwan's Economic Daily News first reported earlier this week that TSMC was considering Texas.

Why Texas

Texas is already a semiconductor hub. Samsung operates a sizable production complex in the state. Elon Musk is developing his Terafab project, which will supply chips for his business empire. Texas Instruments is adding mature-node capacity in Sherman, just north of Dallas. A TSMC campus would place leading-edge capacity in the same ecosystem.

TSMC leaders, including CEO C.C. Wei, have framed overseas expansion as customer-driven: growth follows demand, and it depends on local government support. The possible tax-credit extension is the clearest current test of that principle.

The commercial picture

The arithmetic is straightforward. Confirmed: $265 billion committed in Arizona, with multiple fabs under development. Contingent: a Texas campus of multiple fabs at $20 billion or more each, dependent on a tax-credit extension that Congress has not yet delivered. Underlying both: AI customers generating more than three-quarters of wafer revenue from North America and equipment purchases that doubled in a year.

If the credit is extended and Texas gets a green light, the result would be several more U.S. fabs layered onto the Arizona program — reshaping where the next tranche of leading-edge capacity lands, and how quickly AI chipmakers can fill it.