TSMC’s October Revenue Sets a Record Above Its Q4 Pace

TSMC reported record October 2026 revenue of NT$586.89 billion on Nov. 10, up 59.7% from NT$367.47 billion a year earlier. Sales also rose 14.7%, or roughly NT$75 billion, from NT$511.86 billion in September, indicating that the fourth quarter began at a higher run rate. InvestingCube valued the October result at about US$17.88 billion.

October was TSMC’s first monthly reading for the fourth quarter, which runs through December. Its Oct. 15 guidance called for quarterly revenue of US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion, using an assumed exchange rate of NT$31.8 per US dollar.

At that assumed rate, guidance equates to NT$1.663 trillion to NT$1.727 trillion for the quarter. With October already at NT$586.89 billion, TSMC needs NT$1.076 trillion to NT$1.140 trillion across November and December.

That requires a monthly average of NT$538.1 billion to NT$569.9 billion. October cleared even the upper monthly requirement by about NT$17 billion, and matching October in both remaining months would produce roughly NT$1.761 trillion for the quarter.

This arithmetic uses TSMC’s guidance exchange rate rather than a revised forecast or a confirmed earnings beat. Actual dollar revenue will depend on TSMC’s reporting and exchange-rate treatment during the quarter, so the separately calculated US$17.88 billion should not be mixed with the guidance conversion.

October also broke the previous monthly record of NT$514.81 billion set in August and marked the first time sales exceeded NT$580 billion. September had reached NT$511.9 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier and only 0.6% below the record.

January through October revenue totaled NT$4,485.62 billion, up 43.3% from NT$3,130.44 billion in the same 2025 period. October’s faster annual growth supports management’s demand commentary, although the monthly release does not separate AI processors, smartphone chips or other products.

The record start lowers the revenue TSMC must deliver over the final two months.

How does the node mix explain the growth?

TSMC’s third-quarter technology mix shows where manufacturing strength concentrates. The 2-nanometer process accounted for 8% of wafer revenue, 3-nanometer for 33% and 5-nanometer for 28%. Technologies at 7 nanometers and below contributed 79%.

CFO Wendell Huang said the fourth quarter would benefit from “continued demand for leading-edge technologies,” including the rapid expansion of 2-nanometer production. That statement connects revenue momentum to capacity expansion without quantifying how much volume came from AI.

TSMC makes advanced processors for Nvidia, AMD and Apple, along with chips for custom AI accelerators and high-performance computing applications. Its monthly report does not disclose customer-level sales, shipment volumes by technology or the contribution from price changes.

Those omissions matter because stronger foundry revenue does not mean every AI customer is increasing orders at the same rate. TSMC and Nvidia also sit at different points in the supply chain, so manufacturing revenue need not align with revenue recognized by the chip designer in the same reporting period.

Profitability remains less certain. TSMC forecast a fourth-quarter gross margin of 65% to 67% and an operating margin of 56.5% to 58.5%, following third-quarter revenue of US$46.72 billion and a 66.4% gross margin.

Management has identified margin pressure from introducing 2-nanometer technology and from higher operating costs at overseas fabrication facilities. Revenue alone cannot establish whether the expansion preserves the projected margins.

TSMC’s New York-listed shares fell 10.78% on Nov. 5, closing at US$353.10, before recovering 6.33% on Friday and 3.51% on Monday. At 11:22 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, they traded at US$394.19, up 1.43%, after Monday’s US$388.62 close.

The selloff reflected concern about AI infrastructure investment, capital spending and possible data-center delays, even as companies involved in advanced computing continued to report strong financial performance.

Manufacturing demand looks strong, but customer orders, pricing and profit conversion remain unconfirmed.

What can Nvidia’s next report resolve?

Nvidia’s next report provides a separate test of the AI spending cycle. The company confirmed that it will release fiscal third-quarter 2027 results on Tuesday, Nov. 17, followed by an earnings call at 5 p.m. ET. The reporting period ended Oct. 25.

Investors will examine Nvidia’s data-center revenue, forward guidance and management’s comments on accelerator demand, production capacity and customer spending. Those disclosures may clarify whether robust foundry activity is reaching chip designers.

TSMC’s own next milestone is its November revenue release, which will show whether October’s record held. November and December need to average roughly NT$570 billion to reach the upper end of existing guidance under the original exchange-rate assumption.

The next test is whether monthly sales hold near NT$570 billion while 2-nanometer and overseas costs test margins, and whether Nvidia’s Nov. 17 guidance validates sustained AI-chip demand.