USA Rare Earth Q3 revenue hits $3M, stock drops 11% after miss

By Sophie Lindqvist

USA Rare Earth reported $3 million in third-quarter 2026 revenue against a consensus estimate of $13.55 million, and the shares fell 11% to $7.79. Results crossed after the close on November 9, and Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target on November 10, adding pressure on a stock already down 38% over the past month.

What broke the quarter?

The shortfall traces to feedstock, not demand, according to CFO Rob Steele. Shortages of dysprosium oxide and samarium metal, tied to China's export restrictions, limited what the LCM metals business and the Stillwater magnet plant in Oklahoma could produce and sell.

CEO Thras Moraitis was blunter. Dysprosium supply is "literally a hand-to-mouth situation," he said. No tonnage figure accompanied that description of the bottleneck.

The earnings math confirms the squeeze:

• Adjusted loss of $0.44 per share, against expectations for a loss of $0.146 per share
• Adjusted net loss of $125.64 million
• Net income of $11.71 million on a GAAP basis

That GAAP profit needs a caveat. A $136.57 million non-cash gain on the fair value of financial instruments produced it. The gain is non-operational, and it does not come from ore, metal or magnets.

Spending rose with the corporate roll-up. Selling, general and administrative expenses climbed to $103.66 million from $11.41 million a year earlier. Management attributed the increase to merger and acquisition costs, legal costs and a larger head count after the Serra Verde combination closed on September 3.

What the company actually sold

Two operating milestones landed in the quarter. First commercial magnet shipments left Stillwater in September. Commercial-scale Serra Verde shipments from Brazil began in October.

Moraitis said the company ended the quarter with $1.2 billion in cash. Letters of intent and memoranda of understanding cover roughly 2,500 tonnes of magnets. Those documents are not purchase orders, and the source discloses no revenue attached to them.

"The milestones achieved over the last quarter are only the beginning," Moraitis stated.

Guidance for the fourth quarter is narrow. USA Rare Earth expects Serra Verde sales of at least 325 tonnes of total rare earth oxide, or TREO. Steele said the actual basket price quarter to date runs around $97 per kilogram, more than double a floor value near $43 per kilogram, which he linked to record dysprosium and terbium prices outside China.

Why the whole group fell

Peers sold off as well. Energy Fuels traded at $6.69, down 8%. MP Materials traded at $35.88, down 5%.

USA Rare Earth's steeper decline tracks its own miss, while the group move points to pressure on rare earth equities as a class. The macro trigger was rates: hotter-than-expected October consumer price index data lifted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, squeezing speculative growth names. Separate coverage from the same outlet put the odds of a Fed rate hike above 85% five days ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

How the competitors stand

MP Materials runs a vertically integrated operation anchored by the Mountain Pass mine in California, and it already generates meaningful rare earth revenue. The company has completed magnet qualification with a major car manufacturer and holds a long-term magnet supply agreement with a large consumer technology customer.

Energy Fuels pairs uranium with rare earth processing. That mix sets it apart from both magnet-focused names.

USA Rare Earth sits earlier on the curve, with magnet sales still at the low-volume prototype stage, and Moraitis called the heavy rare earth exposure from Serra Verde unique outside Asia. Building mining, separation, metals and magnet capacity in several countries at once adds execution risk.

What to watch next

The near-term checklist is short:

• Sale of finished magnet prototypes to multiple customers by year-end
• Commissioning of Stillwater Line 1B on schedule in 2027
• Serra Verde ramp detail at an investor conference planned for early 2027
• Whether dysprosium and samarium supply loosens before the fourth quarter closes

The cash balance, the Brazilian mine already shipping product and US government backing support the bull case, while the revenue miss, the wider adjusted loss and the raw material shortages support the bear case. Investors may want to track whether the feedstock bottleneck resolves before drawing firm conclusions.

The bottom line

A 38% monthly decline against a $1.2 billion cash balance tells investors that the raw material gap, not the balance sheet, now sets the price. If dysprosium supply stays scarce through the fourth quarter, hitting the 325-tonne TREO target at a $97 per kilogram basket price will prove harder than the cash pile suggests, and MP Materials' magnet-qualified commercial contracts will keep the competitive distance wide.