Anthropic's $900.9 Billion Compute Bill Meets an $81 Billion Run-Rate

Anthropic has signed purchase commitments and leases worth about $900.9 billion, substantially all of it for compute and infrastructure, according to the amended S-1 it filed on Nov. 10. That total runs about 11 times the roughly $81 billion of Run-Rate Revenue the company reported for Oct. 31, on MLQ.ai's calculation. And it excludes payments under deals with no fixed dollar amount, which Anthropic itself estimates at another $150 billion to $175 billion.

The headline number mixes contracts of very different hardness. Some are take-or-pay agreements binding Anthropic for a decade. Others are GPU rentals either side can end on 90 days' notice, or capacity that only costs money if a counterparty finds financing. The filing quantifies the soft slice: about $186.2 billion sits under termination rights or preconditions such as financing, down from $213.8 billion in the Nov. 2 filing even as the total grew by $5.5 billion. That leaves roughly $714.7 billion not subject to such rights, though Anthropic can generally cut obligations when counterparties miss delivery dates.

How the $900.9 billion stacks up

Only about a third of the total appears in the contractual obligations table investors read first. That table shows $320.0 billion of fixed obligations as of Sept. 30, mostly $313.8 billion of purchase commitments under cloud hosting and infrastructure service agreements. The largest piece sits outside it:

• Signed leases not yet commenced: $451.2 billion, starting between 2026 and 2028, average term about 10 years
• Contractual obligations at Sept. 30: $320.0 billion
• Commitments signed after Sept. 30: $105.7 billion, mostly data center leases and cloud hosting
• Short-term commitments: $24.0 billion

About $451.6 billion is expected to be incurred before the end of 2030, with substantially all the rest between 2031 and 2045. The scheduled slice climbs from $5.2 billion in Q4 2026 to $29.2 billion in 2027, $44.4 billion in 2028, $47.8 billion in 2029 and $45.1 billion in 2030, with $148.4 billion after that. The filing cautions that much of the capacity hasn't been delivered, so timing and amounts may shift.

Who is owed what?

The S-1 names eight large arrangements — and says it is party to others it doesn't describe. Anthropic doesn't reconcile the named deals to the $900.9 billion total.

• Broadcom (TPU leases): about $161.2 billion in rent over five-year master equipment leases, non-cancelable except on lessor default, guaranteed by Anthropic, with cross-default clauses that could accelerate payments. The 2026 Lease Arrangement alone is about $125.2 billion.
• Google Cloud: at least $121.3 billion between April 2026 and July 2033, take-or-pay with a true-up if spending falls short. Separately, Anthropic committed to more TPU compute for delivery 2028-2031, estimated at $125 billion to $150 billion.
• SpaceXAI: up to $120.5 billion for NVIDIA GPU capacity into 2029, about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity lands — roughly $37 billion a year at full rate. Cancellable on 90 days' notice after initial non-cancelable periods ending January and March 2027.
• Amazon (Trainium): at least $110.0 billion between May 2026 and April 2036, take-or-pay with a true-up.
• Microsoft: at least $47.2 billion and up to $49.2 billion between November 2026 and June 2033, up from at least $44.9 billion in the Nov. 2 filing. It grew from the $30 billion Azure commitment announced in November 2025.
• Nscale: up to about $44.6 billion into 2033, pay-on-delivery.
• Lambda: about $41.3 billion into 2034; the $34.9 billion August contract became terminable after Lambda failed to secure its facility lease by a set date. Neither side has given notice.
• AMD: no fixed amount, but Anthropic expects spending above $20.0 billion if it takes the full initial tranche of Helios rack-scale systems in 2027.

The four Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Broadcom agreements total about $440 billion at their minimums and are take-or-pay or non-cancelable. The most flexible capacity is NVIDIA GPUs: SpaceXAI's $120.5 billion plus Lambda's terminable $34.9 billion, together about $155 billion. The structure matches the strategy the filing describes — lock up data center space early, defer larger accelerator commitments until needs are clearer.

Power, data centers and the money question

The S-1 names few sites. It discloses a colocation agreement with Fluidstack, which operates data centers for Anthropic, says its first data center became operational this year, and warns that some facilities rely on dedicated on-site natural gas generation, exposing it to fuel prices and pipeline constraints. Counterparties fill gaps: TeraWulf says Anthropic signed a 20-year lease for about 401 MW at its Kentucky campus, worth about $19 billion, with a Google credit backstop and deliveries from late 2027 into Q2 2028. The Financial Times reported Anthropic agreed to pay about $3.4 billion for 1.7 GW of Caterpillar gas generators in late September.

Against revenue, the near-term schedule looks tight but manageable. Q3 revenue was $16.96 billion; compute and infrastructure expense was $9.86 billion, up from $5.56 billion in Q2. First-nine-month compute expense ran $18.8 billion, 57% of $33.2 billion revenue, including $6.5 billion of pricier short-term compute. Of the $70.7 billion due in the 12 months after Sept. 30, about $4.2 billion sits in contingent or terminable arrangements — roughly 87% of the October run-rate. With $95.6 billion cash, $36.3 billion short-term investments and an estimated $84.6 billion of net proceeds from the IPO of 825 million Class A shares at a $74 midpoint plus a $26.0 billion placement with partners including Google and AMD, pro forma liquidity reaches about $216.5 billion — triple next year's payments but under half the $451.6 billion due through 2030. The risk factors put the dependency plainly: revenue is mostly consumption-based and not under long-term contract, while the commitments run for years, and if growth doesn't keep pace, Anthropic may be unable to meet them.