Chip Routing Reports Cut $400 Billion From Nvidia in Two Days

Reports that Nvidia H100 and H200 chips reached China through a family-linked network have cut roughly $400 billion from the company's market value in two days, dragging the stock to a 30-week low near $165.

On November 10, Nvidia fell as much as 6.3% to $167.35 at midday in New York, with its market value near $4.03 to $4.05 trillion. The drop briefly pushed the chipmaker to third place behind Apple and Microsoft — the first time Microsoft passed it since June 2025.

What did the reports actually say?

The Information reported that Alice Huang, a figure linked to the scandal surrounding CEO Jensen Huang, secured about 240,000 H100 and H200 chips through a family-linked network spanning China, Singapore and Malaysia. The chips were reportedly used to train models at Alibaba and Tencent. The Chinese government has strongly rebutted the spy allegations attached to the story.

The company itself has not confirmed the shipment figures, so the 240,000-chip number remains a press report rather than a verified disclosure. The market, however, has traded on it as if it were fact.

Why the stock is falling on two fronts

The sell-off reflects two distinct pressures. First, US lawmakers are moving toward tighter export controls, raising the odds that Nvidia's China revenue channel narrows further by regulatory fiat. Second, China's own approval process has already slowed deliveries, capping the upside regardless of what Washington does.

The scale of the squeeze is concrete. ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent have ordered about $35 billion of Nvidia GPUs, but supply is expected to fall well short of that figure. About 600,000 H200 chips are currently waiting in Hong Kong because Beijing has not approved their entry.

The analyst behind the analysis framed the imbalance plainly: the market is pricing a governance discount and a higher probability of tighter export rules, while China sales are already capped by Beijing's own approval delays. In that view, Nvidia has little China upside left to lose and more regulatory downside still to price.

The pressure also stacks on a separate risk: a state-level data center moratorium threat that emerged the week before. Nvidia now faces policy pressure at home and abroad at the same time.

Where does the stock stand technically?

Nvidia climbed from an April low near $165 to about $243 in early October, riding a single ascending trendline drawn from that low. The trendline broke near $210 in late October. Price then fell in steps through $200 and $180 back to a 30-week low near $165 — the very April low the trendline started from — a decline of roughly 32% from the high.

The moving-average picture confirms the downtrend. The 21 EMA sits at 192.73, below the 78 EMA at 210.42, and both are falling with price trading under both. RSI at 23.61 is the lowest reading on the chart, so a relief bounce is possible, but it has not yet changed the structure.

What are the scenarios?

The analysis lays out levels as conditions, not recommendations, over a one-to-two-week horizon:

• Base case: a four-hour close below $165 opens the way to $153, then $140.
• Relief case: a four-hour close above $180 is the first sign of stabilization, with $190 and the fast EMA near $193 as the next hurdles.
• Bearish view invalidated: a four-hour close above $190.
• Support: $165 (30-week low and April low), $153, $140, $130.
• Resistance: $180, $190, $210 (broken trendline and slow EMA).

The key event on the calendar is a US-China summit due next week, with semiconductors explicitly on the agenda.

The takeaway in plain words: the personal story around Huang matters less than what it exposes — export rules may tighten, Beijing is already throttling deliveries, and the summit next week will decide how much of that risk becomes policy.