Constellation raises guidance as nuclear power contracts expand

By Tom Whitfield

Constellation Energy raised the midpoint of its 2026 adjusted operating EPS guidance to $12.65 from $12.00, narrowing the range to $12.50-$12.80 from $11.50-$12.50. The change marks the company’s second raise this year, following its issuance of the previous range in August.

Third-quarter adjusted operating EPS climbed 66% to $5.06 from $3.04, while GAAP EPS reached $5.19 from $2.97. Operating revenue rose 45% to $9.55 billion with Calpine in the fleet.

What drove the earnings jump?

GAAP net income nearly doubled to $1.835 billion, or $5.19 a diluted share, from $930 million, or $2.97. Constellation credited favorable market and portfolio conditions and the addition of Calpine, acquired in January.

Higher interest costs and a lower nuclear production tax credit contribution partly offset those gains. Calpine also explains the rise in diluted shares, which averaged 354 million against 313 million a year earlier. The quarter combined stronger markets and an expanded fleet with higher financing costs and a smaller tax-credit contribution.

What do the Amazon and Google contracts change?\n

Customer agreements now give Constellation a visible schedule for adding nuclear capacity:

• September: A 20-year, 690 MW power purchase agreement with Amazon, plus a retail supply deal for Amazon’s operations in the PJM grid. It supports more than $3 billion of investment at the Calvert Cliffs plant in Maryland, including a 190 MW expansion due online between 2030 and 2032.
• October: A 20-year PPA with Google will fund more than $4.3 billion of uprates across 11 nuclear units in Illinois, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. It will add about 890 MW to PJM, with the first uprate expected in 2028; Google also signed a separate 15-year load-following agreement for 2,700 MW in PJM.
• Starting in 2028: Constellation signed its first Peak+ contract, a 20-year agreement for 270 MW of energy, capacity and nuclear attributes from its existing fleet. The company did not name the customer.

CEO Joe Dominguez said: “The new megawatts, which are the equivalent of a new large-scale nuclear plant, are coming online with no costs being borne by existing customers.” He added that the approach shows “we can power the growing digital economy while strengthening our electric grid – all with private investment.” Customer-backed megawatts now anchor a visible expansion schedule.

How does federal financing fit?

In October, Constellation signed a conditional loan commitment with the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing. If a loan agreement follows, DOE would guarantee up to $5.0 billion of 30-year Federal Financing Bank loans for nuclear uprates, at 0.375 percentage point over comparable Treasuries.

Constellation also agreed to buy the 609 MW Rhode Island State Energy Center, a gas-fired combined-cycle plant, from Shell Energy North America for $715 million, pending regulatory approval. The loan offers long-dated support, but its conditional status keeps it short of final financing; the gas-plant deal also awaits clearance.

How much did the nuclear fleet produce?

The nuclear fleet produced 46,677 GWh in the quarter, about level with a year earlier. Plants excluding Salem and South Texas Project ran at a 97.2% capacity factor. Current output stayed stable even as the company lined up future additions.

How do the reported quarters compare?\n

The reported sequence shows both sequential and annual gains:

• Q3 2025: Operating revenue of $6.570 billion, GAAP net income of $930 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $2.97 and adjusted operating EPS of $3.04.
• Q2 2026: Operating revenue of $7.504 billion, GAAP net income of $513 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $1.42 and adjusted operating EPS of $2.55.
• Q3 2026: Operating revenue of $9.550 billion, GAAP net income of $1.835 billion, GAAP diluted EPS of $5.19 and adjusted operating EPS of $5.06.

The third quarter improved from both the second quarter and the year-earlier period across revenue, GAAP profit and adjusted EPS.

The first Google-backed uprate is expected in 2028, when the Peak+ contract also starts, while the Calvert Cliffs expansion targets 2030-32. Those milestones will show how quickly Constellation converts customer-backed agreements into operating capacity; meanwhile, the federal loan remains conditional and the gas-plant purchase awaits regulatory approval.