Fervo’s contracted geothermal revenue reaches $11.9 billion

By Nathan Brooks

Fervo reported $11.9 billion in contracted revenue in its third-quarter earnings report, released Monday, up from $7.2 billion in the previous quarter. It is an order-book figure, not revenue recognized during the quarter.

Fervo has also been hitting deadlines recently, which the company credits for the order growth. That matters because hyperscalers are searching for electricity to power AI data centers, and schedule slippage quickly becomes a commercial problem.

Fervo said it remains on track to complete a 396-megawatt power plant for Google by the end of 2028. The developer connected its first 100-megawatt plant to the grid earlier this year. Both projects are at Cape Station in Utah.

How large is the Cape Station opportunity?

The Cape Station resource could generate 8.4 gigawatts of electricity. Experts previously told Fervo that the site could produce only about 4 gigawatts, well above the earlier figure. The 8.4-gigawatt number remains a resource estimate, not confirmed installed capacity.

The Google project, now called Cape Google 400, will connect to the grid, co-founder and CEO Tim Latimer said on Monday’s earnings call. Under the arrangement, Google can draw power from the agreement and sell it to other customers if it is not ready to use the output.

Latimer said: “We build Cape Station on our schedule. Google can develop a potential data center on their schedule, and neither party is waiting on the other.” This removes the timing mismatch between generation and a data center that may not be ready on the same date.

Geothermal’s phased construction is an advantage over large nuclear or natural-gas plants. Fervo can add capacity as demand appears rather than wait for one large plant to come online.

How do the blocks match data-center demand?

Fervo’s newer wells are deeper and hotter, and each can generate 15 megawatts of gross power. The company links several wells into a unit it calls a GeoBlock.

• The first completed GeoBlock generated 33 megawatts.
• Recent GeoBlocks have reached 50 megawatts.
• Each block is sized to match a typical data-center hall.

That sizing lets hyperscalers bring completed blocks online as their facilities become ready. The progression from 33 megawatts to 50 megawatts shows progress, but completed capacity still trails the much larger project pipeline.

Can Fervo close the price gap?

Fervo said the first phase of Cape Station cost $7,000 per kilowatt of capacity. It put the cost of the Google project at $5,500, a significant drop that the company presents as evidence that it is on the right path. Because the Google plant remains unfinished, $5,500 is a stated project cost rather than a proven final cost.

With subsidies, Fervo said, $5,500 per kilowatt is roughly equivalent to a new natural-gas plant using fuel priced at $6 per million BTUs. Even on that basis, the comparison remains about twice what natural gas costs at today’s prices, although the gap is narrowing.

Fervo’s long-term target is $3,000 per kilowatt. At that level, geothermal could significantly undercut natural gas even at current prices, according to the company. The target remains ambitious despite significant progress in just a few years.

Today’s hyperscalers are hungry for power, but they may not always be price-indiscriminate. Fervo can win on price only if its schedule and cost promises survive contact with construction.

How much financial runway remains?

Fervo remains an early-stage business, with a $43.7 million operating loss in the quarter. It held $1.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $301.6 million in long-term debt, giving it what Fervo describes as ample runway. The balance sheet can fund expansion; it cannot substitute for lower plant costs.

Google has committed early, which gives Fervo a demanding customer schedule. The next test is whether the developer can complete Cape Google 400 by the end of 2028 while moving from $5,500 per kilowatt toward $3,000. Until then, the $11.9 billion contracted-revenue figure demonstrates demand rather than a finished cost advantage over natural gas.