South Korea's finance minister said the semiconductor boom will last at least through next year. The minister directly pushed back against recent warnings that the industry faces an oversupply crash in 2029.

The statement came from the country's top economic official. It sets the government's formal position against market analysts who have flagged the next decade's supply outlook as a risk. Finance Ministry guidance carries weight for Korea's export economy, where memory chips from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix anchor trade performance.

What did the finance minister actually say?

The minister said the boom has at least another year to run. The comment anchors policy to a bullish demand view through next year. It also rejects the more distant warning of a 2029 glut.

The ministry did not publish a capacity or revenue figure alongside the statement. The position rests on the government's read of current demand conditions, not a disclosed forecast model. Analysts who expect oversupply by 2029 have built their case on capacity additions now under construction across the memory industry.

Why does a 2029 warning matter now?

Oversupply warnings move capital plans. Memory makers weigh them when they time fab construction and equipment orders. A government rebuttal signals Seoul wants suppliers and buyers to treat near-term demand as durable.

The 2029 date matters because new fabs ordered today reach full output on roughly that horizon. Construction lead times, tool installation and qualification span several years. A glut projected for 2029 therefore reflects decisions already committed, which is why the finance minister chose to contest it publicly.

Korea's position is not neutral. Samsung and SK Hynix supply a large share of the world's DRAM and NAND output, and both have benefited from the tight market that artificial intelligence demand has produced. A longer boom supports their pricing power and Korea's export receipts.

Who holds the opposing view?

The oversupply warnings the minister rejected come from market analysts tracking capacity growth. BigGo Finance reported the minister's remarks as a direct response to those 2029 projections. The report did not name the analysts or quantify their forecast.

The disagreement is about timing, not direction. Both sides accept that memory cycles turn. The government argues the turn sits beyond next year. The analysts it disputes argue the turn arrives by 2029 as new capacity lands.

What is the commercial picture?

For buyers, the minister's view implies memory pricing stays firm through next year. Purchasers planning server and device builds face a government-endorsed expectation of continued tightness rather than relief.

For suppliers, the statement offers political cover to keep investing. Korea's chipmakers must balance that against the historical pattern of overbuilding into a peak. The finance minister has effectively told them the peak is not imminent.

The stance also carries geopolitical weight. Korea competes with the United States, Japan and China on semiconductor capacity, and each government has a stake in the demand outlook its national champions project. Seoul's public bullishness is part of that contest for investment confidence.

What happens next?

The minister's call will be tested by pricing data and capacity announcements over the coming quarters. If memory prices hold through next year, the government's position will stand strengthened against the 2029 oversupply case; if new capacity lands faster than expected, the analysts' warning regains force.

By Grace Kim, Chip Dispatch.