Meta Tests Points-Only Prediction App as States Sue Kalshi

Meta Platforms is testing a prediction market application called Takes with employees, using virtual points rather than real-money contracts while Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase and Gemini face a state gambling enforcement action. The trial, reported by The Wall Street Journal on November 13, lets staff predict outcomes for points called "cred," short for credibility. Correct predictions add points. Incorrect ones subtract them.

The project began earlier this year under the name Arena. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg reportedly directed a team in June to build the standalone application. Meta has announced no public release date and has not confirmed whether real-money trading will follow.

Why Test a Prediction Market Without Money?

The points model lets Meta measure engagement around event predictions without building the trading and settlement infrastructure that cash-settled event contracts require. Kalshi and Polymarket, by contrast, let participants take financial positions on elections, economic indicators and sport.

Employee testing has covered questions on corporate leadership and television competitions. That range suggests Meta is experimenting beyond financial and political events. The company has not disclosed how Takes would earn revenue, whether it would plug into Facebook or Instagram, or whether it would remain standalone.

The immediate commercial logic is engagement rather than transaction fees. A prediction product could drive repeat visits around breaking news and entertainment without requiring deposits. Reuters, citing an S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan survey, reported that more than 60 percent of prediction market users are younger than 35 — the audience Meta spends heavily to retain.

How Does Meta Compare With Kalshi and Polymarket?

The economics differ sharply. Kalshi's revenue depends on trading activity and transaction fees, and it has gained reach by integrating contracts into Robinhood and Coinbase brokerage accounts. Earlier FinanceFeeds coverage of prediction market volumes, citing Artemis data, found Kalshi accounted for roughly $9.6 billion of the $10 billion in reported non-sports trading volume in the week ending September 13. Volume is not revenue, of course. It is a measure of distribution muscle.

Meta owns one of the largest consumer distribution networks in existence through Facebook and Instagram. There is no confirmation Takes will use it, or that Meta intends to compete for regulated event-contract trading at all. A points system also spares the company from building clearing, collateral and withdrawal arrangements.

Why Do the State Lawsuits Matter?

On November 12, Louisiana filed an enforcement action against Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase, Gemini and other operators. State officials argue that certain event contracts are gambling products subject to state licensing, not merely financial derivatives under federal oversight. A Louisiana state court issued a temporary restraining order restricting unlicensed event-contract activity. The order is preliminary and settles nothing about liability.

The federal government has taken the opposite side. On November 13, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued Arkansas, challenging that state's enforcement against Kalshi. The CFTC argues that federally registered exchanges offering event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act fall within its exclusive jurisdiction. Arkansas disputes that the federal protection covers what it considers unlawful gambling.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig reinforced the position at the Cantor Convergence conference, criticizing criminal enforcement threats against prediction market executives and calling for judicial resolution of the dispute. The stakes extend past individual cases: state restrictions can shrink the geographic reach of trading platforms, cut off brokerage distribution and raise compliance costs.

What Comes Next for Takes?

The line between an entertainment app and a regulated trading platform will matter more if Meta expands Takes beyond employees. Real-money contracts would demand a different operating model — exchange infrastructure, customer verification, transaction surveillance. The CFTC has also warned platforms, in earlier guidance covered by FinanceFeeds, against overly broad self-certification of event contracts.

For now, the trial threatens no one. Meta has committed to nothing in regulated derivatives, disclosed no user metrics and set no commercial targets. The open questions are whether Takes reaches consumers, whether it retains them, and whether points can support a product worth monetizing.

The pending court fights will decide how widely Kalshi, Polymarket and their brokerage partners can sell real-money contracts across the United States — and, indirectly, how attractive Meta's cautious points-only route may become.