Micron Stock Down 35% From June Peak Despite 27% Rebound

Micron shares closed Wednesday at $811.30, down 35.4% from the chipmaker's June 25 all-time intraday high, even after rebounding roughly 27% in recent sessions from their lows. The selloff's trigger was twofold: a bruising post-election rout in AI-adjacent stocks and news that Micron suspended plans for a new Taiwan plant over a prolonged labor dispute.

The damage came fast. MU fell 24% from an $855.10 close on Election Day Tuesday to a $650 intraday low by Thursday — its worst level in six months. The Taiwan suspension report broke that same Thursday, and MU sold off 17.5% for the session after a 7% drop the day before. Even with the partial rebound, the stock sat 5.1% below its Election Day finish as of Wednesday's close (Nov. 11).

What do analysts expect for fiscal Q1?

Micron's next catalyst lands in mid-December, when fiscal Q1 earnings are due. The Street is looking for $38.29 in adjusted EPS on $61.85 billion of revenue, according to the analysis. Those numbers would represent a 701% gain from the $4.78 in adjusted EPS Micron reported a year earlier, plus roughly 355% year-over-year sales growth.

Estimate momentum remains firmly positive. Of 35 sell-side analysts covering MU, 25 have raised their earnings estimates since the quarter began. Only three have cut. Seven left their numbers unchanged.

Still, the analyst behind the review — moomoo markets commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle, who held no position in MU at the time of writing — argues that forward guidance may matter more than the results themselves. The reason: changing U.S. political winds after the Democrats' strong showing in this month's election could reshape the AI trade that has carried memory-chip names higher.

What does the chart say?

The technical picture has soured. A four-month chart running through Nov. 11 shows MU formed a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern stretching from August to the present. The pattern's downside pivot sits near $849; MU closed Wednesday about 4.4% below it and has traded down as much as roughly 23% from that level.

The decisive line now is the 200-day simple moving average at $756.80. MU breached it on Wednesday. Hold above it, and the level could act as support as professional money managers step back in. Fail to hold it, and the same line flips into longer-term upside resistance.

The momentum indicators look worse:

• Relative Strength Index is running below neutral.
• The 9-day EMA histogram (blue bars in the MACD) is well into negative territory — a short-term bearish signal.
• The 26-day EMA has overtaken the 12-day EMA — a medium-term bearish sign.
• All three MACD lines sit below the zero bound.

"Investors should take these bearish signals seriously," the analysis concludes, while cautioning that technical analysis is only one lens and fundamental analysis may offer very different views.

What comes next?

Mid-December's earnings report will test whether a 701% projected EPS surge can outweigh a deteriorating chart. If guidance holds up, the 200-day SMA at $756.80 becomes the level to watch; if the political environment clips AI spending expectations, the battle between bulls and bears at that line could decide Micron's next move.