Nebius Beats Revenue Estimates, then Raises Capex to $27 Billion

By Grace Kim

Nebius reported $980.8 million in third-quarter 2026 revenue, up 571% from $146.1 million a year earlier and above the $907.5 million LSEG consensus cited by CNBC. Yahoo Finance quoted the shares at $135.86 in U.S. premarket trading at 8:09 a.m. ET on November 12, down 12.2% from the prior close of $154.69. Nebius guided 2026 sales to the bottom of its range and increased planned capital spending to about $27 billion. The company released its results before the U.S. open, with a call at 8 a.m. ET. The figures were current at 13:10 GMT on November 12, 2026.

What did Nebius report in the third quarter?

• Revenue reached $980.8 million, compared with $582.3 million in Q2 reported in August, an increase of about 68%. Investing.com cited a $907.2 million consensus, close to the $907.5 million LSEG estimate.
• Operating income turned positive at $50.4 million, versus a loss of $130.2 million a year earlier.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 million, versus a loss of $5.2 million, for a margin of about 47.5%.
• The net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million, or 13 cents per share, from $119.6 million, or 50 cents. Adjusted net income reached $90.9 million. Analysts expected a 63-to-69-cent loss, though CNBC said it was unclear whether the figures were comparable.

Founder and CEO Arkady Volozh told Investing.com: "We are building the full-stack platform for developers and companies to take charge of their AI future."

Why did the stock fall after the revenue beat?

Guidance explains the reversal. Nebius now guides 2026 revenue to the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range. FactSet consensus stood at $3.35 billion. Company-reported nine-month revenue totaled $1.96 billion, so the low end implies about $1.04 billion in Q4 revenue, only 6% above Q3.

Nebius guides 2027 revenue to $12 billion to $13 billion, against FactSet consensus of $12.09 billion. Seeking Alpha reported that shares first rose 2% premarket and then fell 8%. By 8:09 a.m. ET, the decline had reached 12.2%.

Nebius had climbed 15.4% on Wednesday from a $134.00 close, following CoreWeave's results. The premarket quote nearly erased that gain and sat close to Tuesday's close.

How large is the build-out, and who will finance it?

Capital spending guidance rose to about $27 billion for 2026, up from $20 billion to $25 billion. Nebius set 2027 capex at $40 billion to $45 billion. FactSet estimates were $23.85 billion and $28.77 billion, respectively.

Capital spending reached $7.3 billion in the quarter, up 664%, and $15.4 billion over nine months. During the quarter, Nebius raised $5.75 billion in convertible notes and ended September with $7.43 billion in cash. Deferred revenue reached about $9.4 billion, mostly customer prepayments.

The 2027 spending plan is more than three times the revenue target. Investors now must judge whether debt or new shares will finance the build-out.

How does Nvidia connect to Nebius?

Nvidia held about $329 million of Nebius stock at the end of June, according to a 13F filing cited by CNBC. AI stocks came under pressure before the open after The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia's board was preparing to remove CEO Jensen Huang. Cerebras, due to report that night, also traded lower in premarket trading. Nvidia's November 17 results provide the next scheduled reading on AI infrastructure demand.

Which price levels frame the debate?

• Bull, $155: The earnings call shows that the 2027 outlook has contract support and that capex can be financed without heavy dilution. The level matches Wednesday's $154.69 close, about 14% above the premarket quote.
• Base, $130 to $145: Investors weigh the 2027 revenue outlook against the spending plan while the stock holds Tuesday's $134.00 close. Tuesday's close and the premarket range anchor the scenario.
• Bear, $120: Investors focus on the $40 billion to $45 billion 2027 capex, the risk of new shares or debt, and continued weakness in AI stocks tied to the Nvidia report.

The $120 level sits about 12% below $135.86 and below the $129.49 level in the November 8 preview. These reference levels use the premarket quote and are not forecasts.

What should investors watch next?

• Regular session: Whether NBIS holds near Tuesday's $134.00 close after trading opens at 14:30 GMT.
• Financing: Details on funding about $27 billion of 2026 capex and $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027.
• Q4 revenue: Whether management explains when new capacity starts earning revenue; the low-end guide implies about $1.04 billion.
• Analyst revisions: No price-target changes had appeared by publication.
• Nvidia: The November 17 earnings release and its reading on AI infrastructure demand.

The next test is whether new capacity starts earning revenue quickly enough to support the 2027 build-out without heavy dilution, with Nvidia's November 17 results providing the next demand signal.