Nvidia Shares Lose Over 10% as Regulatory and Security Concerns Build

Nvidia shares have lost more than 10% of their value over the short term, falling below the key $200 level and trading at prices not seen since the final days of April. The selling pressure began to build at the start of last week and has not let up since. A market commentary from FOREX.com, written by analyst Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT, maps the damage and the levels that matter next.

Why is the stock falling?

Two developments sit behind the weakness, according to the analysis. First, last week's Democratic victory has raised concerns about a potentially more restrictive regulatory environment for the artificial intelligence industry in the United States. Second, recent reports say an investigation was launched after claims that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence operation.

Together, these developments weigh on Nvidia's growth outlook in the short term and raise new questions about the company's internal environment. The commentary notes that selling pressure continues to gain momentum and could remain an important factor over the coming sessions. In plain terms, politics and security, not chip demand, are driving the move.

What does the chart show?

The weakness has been strong enough to break below the long-term bullish trendline that dominated price action for months. The stock now trades near some of the most important lows on the chart. Pineda writes that this development could gradually pave the way for a new short-term bearish trendline to emerge as the dominant technical structure in the weeks ahead. The months-long uptrend, in other words, has given way to a forming downtrend.

The MACD histogram continues to develop well below the 0 neutral line. This reflects a meaningful bearish dynamic within short-term moving averages, and as long as the reading holds, selling pressure could continue to dominate price action. The message from momentum is simple: sellers still control the tape.

The RSI tells a similar but more nuanced story. The indicator remains below its neutrality level, yet it has moved close to the 30 oversold threshold, a reading not seen in several months. This may signal an excessive amount of recent selling pressure and could eventually open the door to short-term bullish corrections. Even bears, the indicator suggests, may need a pause.

Which price levels matter now?

The analysis singles out three reference points:

• $195 — key resistance. The most important upside barrier on the chart, sitting near the psychological $200 per share area and close to the 200-period simple moving average. A return toward this level could highlight a lack of direction and favor a broader range-bound phase in the weeks ahead.
• $181 — near-term barrier. An important retracement area and the closest level to monitor if short-term bullish corrections develop.
• $166 — critical support. This level corresponds to Nvidia's most important lows of 2026. Consolidation around or below it could signal a significant shift in market structure and open the door to a more established bearish trend.

The takeaway from these levels is straightforward: the range between $166 and $195 now defines the battlefield between buyers and sellers.

What comes next?

For the moment, the balance of forces favors the sellers. The broken trendline, the negative MACD and the regulatory overhang all point one way, while the near-oversold RSI is the lone argument for a bounce. Pineda's analysis suggests the market will treat any rebound toward $181 and then $195 as a test of whether the stock can stabilize, and a slide toward $166 as confirmation of a genuine bearish turn in Nvidia's market structure.