Nvidia Shed $192 Billion as Huang Lost $6.47 Billion

By Grace Kim

Nvidia’s market value fell about $192 billion on Monday. Shares closed at $178.67, down $7.97, or 4.3%, across 24.1 billion shares. Jensen Huang’s 811,521,160 shares lost $6.47 billion in the session. The decline came one day after Nvidia’s board opened an independent investigation into reports that a foreign intelligence effort had targeted its founder.

Monday’s close valued Huang’s stake at $145.0 billion. It stood at $151.5 billion on Friday and $194.1 billion at the record closing price of $239.24 on Oct. 6. His holding has therefore lost $49.2 billion from that peak.

What do the target cuts signal?

According to MT Newswires, Citi cut its Nvidia price target to $285 from $315 at 5:32 a.m. ET Tuesday. Wells Fargo cut its target to $300 from $315 about 40 minutes later. Those targets remained 60% and 68% above Monday’s close. The cuts were the first target changes since the board’s statement.

Citi analyst Atif Malik cited potential governance effects, regulatory scrutiny, export-control compliance for H200 data-center chips routed through intermediaries into China, and longer-term leadership stability. He put China-bound H200 flow at less than 1% of data-center sales. Nvidia has said Huang will remain CEO during the investigation.

Morningstar retained its $310 fair-value estimate and added investigations and espionage to the risks behind its “very high” uncertainty rating. Brian Colello said Huang’s departure could reduce AI dealmaking and financing while increasing regulation and political backlash. Demand for AI computing still exceeds supply, however, and Morningstar expects no revenue effect in the near or medium term.

Dan Ives wrote on X that the market was “factoring in ~15% chance Jensen gone from Nvidia, 85% he stays as CEO.” Jim Cramer said investors may have to consider owning a Jensen-less Nvidia. Nvidia traded near $182 before Tuesday’s opening, up about 1.8%, according to Barron’s.

What is under investigation?

President Donald Trump told reporters the FBI “is looking into” Huang. Trump said he asked Huang whether he knew the woman was a spy, and Huang “said I had no idea.” The allegations therefore remain under investigation rather than established facts.

A shareholder filed a proposed class action in federal court in San Francisco on Monday. The suit concerns Nvidia’s statements about its dealings with Megaspeed, the Singapore customer where the woman served as an executive.

The Information reported on Tuesday, citing two people familiar with the woman, that the relationship helped at least $7.5 billion of Nvidia chips reach China. Reuters could not verify that report, and Nvidia did not immediately comment.

How much control does Huang retain?

Huang’s Form 4, filed Sept. 18, lists:

• 70,100,666 shares held directly.
• 467,693,547 shares in the Jen-Hsun and Lori Huang Living Trust.
• 140,461,613 shares in two irrevocable trusts.
• 133,265,334 shares in six LLCs owned by the living trust.

Those holdings total 811,521,160 shares, about 3.4% of Nvidia. Nvidia’s proxy lists beneficial ownership of 870,604,104 shares, but 58,683,830 belong to the family foundation, in which the proxy says Huang has no financial interest.

Morningstar cites Huang’s ownership as one reason he may stay. A founder who owns 3.4% of a $4.3 trillion company is difficult to remove, Morningstar said, and Nvidia’s board has expressed confidence in him.

What can prior CEO exits show?

Three boards reviewed the personal conduct of major-company leaders during the past eight years, and each executive left. Nvidia has kept Huang in place during its review, so the cases guide key-person risk without forecasting the outcome. In each case, the first-day decline was smaller than the six-month loss.

Intel said before the opening bell on June 21, 2018 that Brian Krzanich had resigned. From the prior close of $53.46, Intel fell 2.4% on the first day, 2.9% after one month and 14.8% after six months.

McDonald’s removed Steve Easterbrook on Nov. 3, 2019. From $193.94, its shares fell 2.7% on the first day, rose 0.2% after one month and fell 6.2% after six months, a window that ended in the 2020 pandemic crash.

Wynn Resorts formed a special committee on Jan. 26, 2018, after The Wall Street Journal published allegations against Steve Wynn. From $200.60, the stock fell 10.1% that day, 16.7% after one month and 18.5% after six months.

How does the risk reach a retiree?

Consider a hypothetical 67-year-old retired engineer who bought 300 Nvidia shares on Jan. 3, 2023 for $143.15 each, or $42,945, in a taxable brokerage account. Nvidia’s 10-for-1 split in June 2024 turned them into 3,000 shares with a $14.32 cost basis each.

At the record close, the position was worth $717,720. It was worth $559,920 on Friday and $536,010 on Monday, a one-day loss of $23,910. Since Oct. 6, it has surrendered $181,710, but remains $493,065 above the original investment.

Together, the retiree and spouse hold $2.4 million, making Nvidia 22.3% of their portfolio. If the stock followed Intel’s six-month path, the position would be worth $456,601, another $79,409 lower. Wynn’s path would leave $436,584, another $99,426 lower.

Trimming Nvidia to 10% of the portfolio means keeping 1,343 shares and selling 1,657 for $296,056. The long-term gain on those shares is $272,336. With about $110,000 of other income, taxable income remains below the $613,700 threshold where the 20% capital-gains rate begins.

The federal gain tax would be 15%, or $40,850. The 3.8% net investment income tax applies to $132,336 of income above $250,000, adding $5,029. Total federal tax would reach $45,879, leaving $250,177 after tax from the sale.

Splitting the 1,657-share sale equally between December and January would produce a $136,168 gain each year and keep income below $250,000, eliminating the net investment income tax. Two-year federal tax would be $40,850, saving $5,029 for a four-week wait. Medicare would read the gain two years from now, making one Part B surcharge year part of the cost.

Both approaches retain 1,343 shares regardless of the board’s decision. The calculation frames the choice as concentration management rather than a prediction.

What could change the commercial picture?

For now, Morningstar sees AI demand running ahead of supply and expects no near- or medium-term revenue effect. The next commercial tests are whether the investigation affects Huang’s leadership and prompts tighter scrutiny of H200 shipments to China, even as Ives assigns an 85% chance that Huang remains CEO.