October CPI, Split Fed and AI Earnings Stack Into One Market Week

By Tom Whitfield

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, and the report lands on a Federal Reserve committee that split 10-2 over rates just two weeks ago. The Fed held its target range at 3.75%-4% on Oct. 28, with Governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a quarter-point increase. The next meeting runs Dec. 8-9.

The stakes for the reading are unusually lopsided. The 2025 government shutdown stopped BLS from collecting October 2025 prices, and the agency will not publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where that baseline is missing. The month-over-month figure, plus core prices excluding food and energy, will carry the report. BLS releases October real earnings at the same time.

What else fills the data calendar?

Producer prices for October follow on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims arrive Thursday at 8:30 a.m.; initial claims stood at 189,000 for the week ending Oct. 31. The National Association of Realtors publishes October existing-home sales Thursday at 10 a.m.

October retail sales are not on this week's Census calendar. The agency's only release is Thursday's business formation statistics. The takeaway: inflation data dominates a week that is otherwise thin on hard economic numbers.

How does the Treasury market trade around Veterans Day?

SIFMA recommends a full close of the bond market on Wednesday, Nov. 11, with no early close Tuesday. Veterans Day is not an NYSE holiday, so equity markets stay open. The Fed moved daily and weekly statistical releases scheduled for Wednesday to Thursday, including the H.4.1 balance sheet report at 4:30 p.m.

Treasury is mid-refunding. It sold $58 billion of three-year notes on Monday at a high yield of 4.627%, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53. A $42 billion 10-year note auction closes at 1 p.m. Tuesday, hours after CPI lands. A $25 billion 30-year bond auction closes at 1 p.m. Thursday. Four-, eight- and 17-week bill auctions also shift to Thursday.

The Fed calendar is light on monetary policy. Governor Michael Barr speaks Thursday at 10 a.m. on "Artificial Intelligence and Inequality." On Friday, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman discusses supervision and regulation at 10:50 a.m., and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at 7 p.m. on assessing productivity puzzles from new technology. In short, traders get a full coupon calendar and a half-closed market in the same week.

What do the AI earnings show?

CoreWeave reports third-quarter results after Tuesday's close, with a call at 5 p.m. In August it reported second-quarter revenue of $2.58 billion, up from $1.21 billion a year earlier, and a backlog of about $104 billion. Management guided third-quarter revenue to $3.4 billion-$3.6 billion and raised 2026 capital spending plans to $35 billion-$39 billion. Nebius reports before Thursday's open, with a call at 8 a.m.

Thursday after the close brings three AI suppliers:

• Cisco guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to $18.0 billion-$18.2 billion after taking $9.3 billion of AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers in fiscal 2026.
• Applied Materials guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to about $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million.
• Cerebras reports its third quarter with a call at 5 p.m.

The cluster matters because it spans the AI supply chain in one session: cloud capacity, networking gear and chipmaking tools. Results from all three will test whether hyperscaler spending commitments are still converting into vendor revenue and orders.

Where does the Anthropic IPO stand?

Anthropic is expected to disclose its IPO price range and share count in a filing early this week, The Wall Street Journal reported. The company targets a Nasdaq debut next Thursday or Friday under the ticker ANT. Investors had anticipated a valuation around $1.5 trillion as recently as last week, according to the Journal. The pricing terms will set the reference point for the entire AI sector's public-market reckoning.

What is happening in Washington?

In the Senate, a procedural vote on the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (S. 5653) was set for 5:30 p.m. Monday. The bill would speed permits for energy and infrastructure projects and faces the first of two 60-vote thresholds. Semafor reported it would probably take a couple of weeks to pass the Senate if it advances. Faster approvals for power plants and transmission bear directly on data center buildouts.

In the House, Rep. Thomas Massie read eight articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on the floor Monday, forcing action within two legislative days. Lawmakers must either vote on the articles or move to table or refer them. The vote tests the 218-214 Republican majority that would also have to pass any Senate permitting bill.

The week closes with the producer price report on Friday, after results from Cisco, Applied Materials and Cerebras will have already shown whether AI infrastructure demand is holding at the scale CoreWeave's $104 billion backlog implies.