Rigetti Q3 revenue drops 28%; $20 million target hinges on C-DAC

By Rebecca Stone

Rigetti Computing reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.41 million, down 28% from $1.95 million a year earlier and down from $5.1 million in the second quarter. Nine-month revenue more than doubled to $10.9 million, leaving the full-year target exposed to a year-end customer decision.

Rigetti still expects roughly $20 million of 2026 revenue, assuming India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) accepts its quantum computer in the fourth quarter and recognizes the associated revenue. Hitting that forecast therefore requires about $9.1 million in Q4 after only $1.41 million in Q3.

Shares fell in after-hours trading following Tuesday’s release, TipRanks reported. One customer now carries the forecast.

What changed beneath the revenue line?

The cost base rose faster than sales. Gross profit increased to $857,000 from $404,000 because cost of revenue fell faster than revenue, while the operating loss widened to $33.2 million from $20.5 million a year earlier.

R&D spending climbed 70% to $25.5 million, and selling, general and administrative costs rose 44% to $8.5 million. Accounting narrowed the bottom line: Rigetti booked a $25.3 million fair-value gain on warrant liabilities and $4.8 million of interest income.

GAAP net loss was $3.1 million, or $0.08 per share. Excluding the warrant gain and $8.0 million of stock-based compensation, the non-GAAP net loss nearly doubled to $20.5 million, or $0.06 per share, from $10.7 million.

An MLQ.ai series derived from SEC filings captures the lumpy system-sales pattern:

Quarter	Revenue	Operating loss	R&D	Net income (loss)
Q3 2025	$1.9M	($20.5M)	$15.0M	($201.0M)
Q4 2025	$1.9M	($22.6M)	$17.3M	($18.2M)
Q1 2026	$4.4M	($26.0M)	$20.0M	$33.1M
Q2 2026	$5.1M	($28.1M)	$20.7M	($52.6M)
Q3 2026	$1.4M	($33.2M)	$25.5M	($3.1M)

What can the cash position cover?

Cash, cash equivalents and available-for-sale investments totaled $497.1 million at Sept. 30, down from $589.8 million at the end of 2025; Rigetti had no debt. Operating activities used $49.1 million in the first nine months.

Capital spending reached $42.6 million, up from $14.1 million a year earlier, as Rigetti added dilution refrigerators and other infrastructure for larger systems. The company was funding both R&D and physical capacity at the same time.

How much rides on C-DAC acceptance?

Rigetti announced in January an $8.4 million order from C-DAC for an on-premises 108-qubit system in Bengaluru, with deployment scheduled for the second half of 2026.

The release says its roughly $20 million full-year outlook assumes “C-DAC customer acceptance and associated revenue recognition in the fourth quarter.” If acceptance slips into 2027, most of that revenue slips with it.

That is the commercial hinge. A $9.1 million fourth-quarter booking would have to reverse the third-quarter contraction, and failure to secure it would leave the $20 million forecast short.

What can the hardware deliver?

Cepheus-1-108Q, built from 12 interconnected 9-qubit chiplets, reached 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, the milestone Rigetti had set for the system. On smaller sections of the chip, the company measured 99.6% across 80 qubits and 99.7% across 50.

“Our Cepheus-1-108Q system achieved our goal of 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, demonstrating continued performance improvement at the 100-plus-qubit level,” CEO Subodh Kulkarni said.

By mid-2028, Rigetti targets more than 300 qubits, about 99.7% median two-qubit fidelity and gate speeds below 60 nanoseconds. The roadmap calls for more qubits per chiplet, faster readout and more cryogenic capacity; these are targets, not delivered capacity.

Within about three years, the company aims for roughly 1,000 qubits at about 99.9% fidelity, packed into a single dilution refrigerator rather than networking several. Rigetti says that combination could be enough to demonstrate quantum advantage, a claim that remains a roadmap objective.

How much federal support follows?

In September, Rigetti signed a definitive agreement with the U.S. Commerce Department for an award of up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act’s research and development program. The award supports miniaturized readout electronics, a new cryostat architecture and fabrication for high-connectivity chips.

As a condition, the Commerce Department received a minority, non-controlling equity stake in Rigetti.

The results followed a run of quantum earnings in the same week: D-Wave’s revenue rose 21%, Quantum Computing Inc.’s interest income topped sales, and a bipartisan commission urged sustained federal quantum funding.

The next commercial checkpoint is C-DAC acceptance in Q4; if it moves into 2027, most of the roughly $9.1 million required for Rigetti’s $20 million 2026 target moves with it, while the 300-plus-qubit and roughly 1,000-qubit systems remain roadmaps rather than shipped capacity.