TSMC posted record third-quarter revenue of T$1.49 trillion ($46.71 billion), up 50% from a year earlier and ahead of both the T$1.46 trillion LSEG consensus and the top end of the company's own dollar-denominated guidance.

The world's largest contract chipmaker generated the July-September result on surging demand for AI applications, according to its revenue statement released Thursday. Revenue in the year-ago quarter was T$989.92 billion.

The LSEG SmartEstimate, drawn from 19 analysts, had predicted T$1.46 trillion. In July, on its previous earnings call, TSMC guided third-quarter revenue to between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion — a range the final number cleared. The company forecasts only in US dollars, not Taiwan dollars.

How fast is the momentum?

September alone shows the acceleration. TSMC reported monthly revenue of T$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year-on-year — a faster clip than the quarter's overall 50% gain, suggesting demand strengthened as the quarter progressed.

The AI boom is lifting the whole supply chain, not just the foundry leader. Samsung Electronics, also on Thursday, projected quarterly operating profit above 100 trillion won — a world first for a technology company — on an estimated near-nine-fold jump in third-quarter earnings, driven by booming AI chip demand and strong memory sales.

TSMC, a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple, did not provide details or forward guidance in the brief revenue statement. It reports full third-quarter earnings next Thursday, when it will update its outlook for the current quarter and the rest of the year.

What do analysts expect from the earnings call?

An LSEG SmartEstimate puts third-quarter net profit at T$740.8 billion, a 64% on-year rise — an analyst projection, not a company figure. Whether guidance rises alongside it will be the key question for the call, given that revenue has now exceeded the company's own forecast range.

The stock has already priced in much of the run. TSMC's Taipei-listed shares closed down 1.35% on Thursday ahead of the release, against a 1% decline for the broader market. The stock has gained 64.52% so far this year, in line with the wider Taiwanese market.

Asia's most valuable listed company, with a market capitalisation of $2.1 trillion, now faces the task of converting record top-line growth into equally strong profit delivery and an outlook that justifies the rally — starting with next Thursday's earnings report.

($1 = 31.9020 Taiwan dollars)