AMD Beat Nvidia by 32 Points in a Week, Yet Nvidia Keeps the Better Case

AMD outperformed Nvidia by 31.68 percentage points in the five sessions ended November 13, 2026, the widest gap between the two chipmakers since Nvidia went public in 1999. The Kobeissi Letter called it AMD's greatest five-session outperformance against its rival on record. AMD rose 18.93% over the week; Nvidia fell 12.75%. Year to date, AMD is up 149.37% while Nvidia is down 12.48%.

Nvidia closed the week at $162.85, off 26.41% in a month. AMD closed at $534.06. The proximate cause is political rather than silicon. Nvidia opened an independent investigation after reports that Chief Executive Jensen Huang had a relationship with a suspected Chinese spy, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. The stock has not waited for the findings.

What did the selloff do to valuations?

The decline inverted the usual pricing relationship between the two companies. Nvidia now trades at 33 times trailing earnings; AMD trades at 202 times. Nvidia's free cash flow yield stands at 2.46% against 0.76% for AMD, and its earnings yield is 3.05% against 0.49%. AMD's price, in plain terms, already assumes years of flawless execution. Nvidia is now the cheaper AI stock by a wide margin.

Which company is growing faster?

AMD's third quarter delivered revenue of $13.377 billion, up 44.68% year over year, with non-GAAP earnings of $2.09 per share against a $1.94 consensus. Data Center sales reached $8.546 billion, up 97%, as Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI and Oracle brought Helios racks online. Fourth-quarter guidance calls for roughly $17 billion in revenue, about 66% growth, and management expects revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027.

Chief Executive Lisa Su said: "Data center revenue growth has accelerated sequentially every quarter this year." That is the kind of sentence investors reward.

Nvidia remains far larger. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $96.221 billion, up 105.85%. Its fiscal 2028 outlook, however, calls for growth of about 70%, limited by supply rather than demand. AMD's growth rate is rising while Nvidia's is moderating. On trajectory, AMD wins.

Where does quality sit?

Nvidia's margins remain the industry standard. The company posts a 71.1% gross margin, a 60.4% operating margin and a 101.5% return on equity. AMD's corresponding figures are 49.5%, 10.7% and 7.19%. Nvidia generated $21.341 billion of free cash flow last quarter and returned a record $26 billion to shareholders, with about $99 billion remaining on its buyback authorization and a $0.25 quarterly dividend.

AMD pays no dividend, and its free cash flow fell 70.86% to $554 million as inventory climbed to $11.463 billion. A company can grow revenue at 97% and still consume cash doing it. Nvidia wins on quality.

Nvidia carries genuine risks of its own. Management stated that "there is no China data center compute revenue in our forward outlook," and margins are expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter. The China exposure is gone from guidance entirely, and supply still caps what the company can ship.

What is the verdict?

Nvidia wins two of the three categories, and the two it wins matter most for retirement money. A portfolio built for capital preservation and steady compounding benefits more from a 33-times multiple, industry-leading margins and consistent buybacks than from a 202-times stock whose cash flow is being absorbed by inventory. AMD also carries higher volatility, including an 8.75% single-day drop on November 13.

Nvidia's recovery path runs through three milestones:

• A clean result from the independent investigation
• Delivery against its $108 billion third-quarter revenue guide
• A Vera Rubin ramp expected to supply about 20% of data center revenue in the third quarter

Huang framed the constraint simply: "Even though our demand is much greater than 70%, our supply allows us to confidently deliver 70%." The scandal knocked the stock down. Nvidia's earnings and cash flow give it the stronger case for recovery, provided the investigation clears and the Vera Rubin ramp arrives on schedule.