Anthropic IPO Bankers Weigh Pricing Above $78 Range at $1.5 Trillion Valuation

Anthropic's bankers expect to price its initial public offering above the $70 to $78 range filed on Tuesday, lifting the valuation target to $1.5 trillion or more on a fully diluted basis, the Financial Times reported, citing five people familiar with the matter. A higher price would push the total raised past $100 billion, the FT said.

The filed range implies $1.26 trillion to $1.41 trillion fully diluted, the same basis the FT used for its $1.5 trillion figure. On the 13.09 billion shares the S-1/A says will be outstanding after the offering, that range equals $916 billion to $1.02 trillion — the basis Reuters used. On roughly 17.98 billion fully diluted shares, $1.5 trillion implies about $83 a share, roughly 7% above the top of the range, or about $1.09 trillion on shares outstanding.

How strong is demand?

Demand was already covered at the filed range on Tuesday. People familiar with the deal told CNBC the book was covered on an allocable basis and that institutional demand was running ahead of SpaceX's at the same stage. Pricing is planned for Nov. 18, with trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on Nov. 19 under the ticker ANT.

The report reverses the mood of last week. After the post-election tech sell-off, large institutions told The Wall Street Journal they wanted a valuation below the roughly $1.5 trillion Anthropic had targeted. Bloomberg reported on Nov. 6 that buyers were discussing $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. One investor called $1.5 trillion a "stretch" to CNBC as recently as Tuesday. Anthropic's investors have scaled back hopes of a $2 trillion IPO in recent weeks, the FT said.

The filing offers 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78, up to $64.35 billion, with an option for underwriters to buy 123.75 million more. Seven strategic investors — including Google, Nvidia and Microsoft — will buy $26 billion of stock at the IPO price in a private placement. Three backers told the FT the company now cares more about raising cash for its computing bill than about maximizing the valuation. That bill stands at about $900 billion of compute and infrastructure commitments.

At about $83 a share, the public shares, the full over-allotment and the $26 billion placement would total about $105 billion, consistent with the FT's "beyond $100bn" arithmetic. Morningstar analysts put fair equity value at $1.7 trillion but said Anthropic could be worth anywhere from $500 billion to $3 trillion depending on adoption of its tools.

Anthropic and Goldman Sachs declined to comment to the FT. Morgan Stanley, the other lead bank, did not immediately respond. As of late Tuesday ET, the Nov. 10 S-1/A with the $70 to $78 range remained the latest filing on EDGAR; any price change requires a new one.

What is trading on the side?

Secondary trading has started before the listing. Bloomberg reported that backers expecting large allocations offered up to $500 million of shares through JonesTrading at 3% to 5% above the IPO price. The FT said another venture firm offered $1.25 billion through a special-purpose vehicle at a $1.5 trillion valuation, and that Anthropic has warned it will not recognize offers from certain pre-IPO secondary brokers.

Where does retail fit?

Anthropic's Australian retail offer opened at 10 a.m. AEDT Wednesday and closes at 5 p.m. AEDT on Nov. 17. CommSec, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia unit, is lead broker, alongside Bell Potter, LGT Wealth, Macquarie, Morgans, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Sharesies and Stake. The prospectus is lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission; the shares will trade only on Nasdaq, with no ASX listing. Anthropic is targeting about 20% of the offering for retail investors, against a typical 5% to 10%, CNBC reported. Dario Amodei is expected to discuss the IPO with JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon in a livestream on Friday; JPMorgan leads US retail marketing, Bloomberg reported.

Who gains from a higher price?

Nvidia plans to invest about $10 billion right after the IPO, roughly 10% of the new cash Anthropic expects to raise this month, The New York Times reported, calling it the largest of the new commitments. The Information's Martin Peers wrote that the updated filing shows Amazon and Google stand to make substantial gains, making them a cheaper route to Anthropic exposure. TSMC's board approved buying up to $500 million of Anthropic common shares at the IPO price on Tuesday.

If the book remains this covered through Nov. 18, pricing above $83 a share would make Anthropic the largest IPO proceeds event on record and set a fresh benchmark for how the market values AI compute commitments.