D-Wave Rises, Rigetti Falls as Quantum Rivals Miss Estimates

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) fell more than 4% on Wednesday, November 11, after its third-quarter revenue of $1.4 million missed Wall Street estimates of $3.5 million by roughly 60%, while D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) gained more than 2% despite posting a wider-than-expected loss. The two reports, released around Tuesday's trading sessions, exposed the different hurdles each company faces in turning technology and contracts into revenue. Both reported substantial operating losses and continued heavy spending on next-generation quantum systems.

Why did D-Wave stock recover despite a wider loss?

D-Wave reported Q3 revenue of $4.51 million, up 21% from $3.74 million a year earlier and ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $4.33 million to $4.37 million. The company lost $0.13 per share against expectations of about a $0.10 loss. Operating expenses rose 84% to $55.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA losses widened to $37.7 million.

The revenue mix shifted. Professional services added $1.5 million and quantum computing as a service (QCaaS) added $800,000, while system sales fell by $1.5 million. That shift cut gross margin to 52.9% from 71.4% a year earlier, showing that higher sales did not produce stronger operating profitability.

Bookings told a two-sided story. Nine-month bookings reached $37.4 million, up 611% year over year, but third-quarter bookings fell 19% to $1.9 million. Remaining performance obligations stood at $38.3 million, up 1,221%, with about 59% expected to be recognized within 12 months. As FinanceFeeds reported, the stock initially dropped around 11% after Tuesday's release before recovering.

The takeaway: the $38.3 million backlog gives visibility into future revenue, but bookings are not recognized sales, and conversion depends on delivering systems and growing recurring QCaaS income.

Why did Rigetti's revenue miss raise concerns?

Rigetti's $1.4 million in quarterly revenue was down roughly 28% from $1.95 million a year earlier. Its adjusted loss was $0.06 per share against an expected $0.05, and operating losses widened to $33.2 million from $20.5 million in the corresponding quarter of 2025. Nine-month revenue still rose about 110% to $10.9 million.

Management kept its full-year target of approximately $20 million, contingent on customer acceptance of a system ordered by India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC). Hitting that target requires about $9.1 million in fourth-quarter revenue, more than six times the third-quarter figure. A delay beyond December could push revenue recognition into 2027 and leave the company short.

On the technical side, Rigetti reported 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system, with a next goal of a system exceeding 300 qubits at roughly 99.7% fidelity by mid-2028. The company ended September with $497.1 million in cash and investments and no debt. The gap between engineering milestones and commercial sales remains the central problem.

How much support will the $100 million CHIPS agreements provide?

Both companies signed definitive agreements with the U.S. Department of Commerce in September for access to up to $100 million each under the CHIPS and Science Act. The funding supports superconducting quantum research, covering hardware architecture, materials, cryogenic infrastructure and system scalability.

The awards carry milestones and conditions, so they are not unrestricted cash already received. Rigetti disclosed that the government received a minority, non-controlling equity stake as a condition of its agreement.

What should investors watch next?

The reports reinforced how different these frequently grouped stocks are. D-Wave carries a larger backlog and growing quarterly revenue but heavy expenses; Rigetti has stronger technical metrics but a concentrated fourth-quarter revenue target. Both stocks remain down sharply year to date, roughly 47% for Rigetti and 59% for D-Wave, based on Wednesday's early trading. Other quantum names, including IonQ and Infleqtion, fluctuated during the session.

The next decisive events are Rigetti's C-DAC acceptance, D-Wave's conversion of contracted revenue into sales, and the timing of government disbursements.