Riot's $28 Billion Texas Lease Rewrites the AI Data Center Map

Riot Platforms signed a 15-year, $28 billion lease for 910 megawatts of planned AI computing capacity at its Corsicana, Texas campus, the largest deal in the company's history. Investors pushed the stock up nearly 10% on Wednesday, Nov. 4, the same day the company released third-quarter earnings. The deal's structure matters as much as its size: it is a triple-net powered land lease, and the tenant, identified as Anthropic in Riot's SEC filing, pays rent on each delivered portion of the 910 MW whether it uses the capacity or not.

The market treated the rest of the AI infrastructure sector very differently that day. IREN and CoreWeave both fell sharply after the Nov. 3 Texas election results raised new questions about future data center approvals in the state. Wells Fargo estimates that Texas accounts for 27% of planned U.S. data center power capacity.

What separates the winners from the losers?

The split points to the question investors now ask of every AI infrastructure name. Where is the capacity located, and how much of it is already spoken for? Signed leases on sites with power in hand look very different from capacity still being marketed or still waiting on approvals.

How exposed is each company to Texas?

Riot's data center business sits entirely in Texas, at its Rockdale and Corsicana campuses, but both sites already have established power infrastructure and substantial long-term leases. Across three agreements, Riot has 1,151 MW under contract, representing about $38 billion of contracted revenue.

The catch is timing. Corsicana's first 400 MW phase is due in September 2027, the next 200 MW follows in January 2028, and the final 310 MW arrives in July 2028. Rockdale's first AI lab phase is due in December 2027. Until then, Bitcoin mining still drives most of Riot's revenue.

IREN's largest sites are also in Texas. Childress holds 750 MW of capacity and the company's biggest contracts, including a five-year, $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft. Its Sweetwater hub is designed for up to 2 gigawatts. IREN says its 2026 capacity is largely sold out, but it was still in talks with customers over much of its 2027 capacity as of August. The first 300 MW at Sweetwater 1 is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027, with expansion from 2028.

That uncontracted capacity carries the most exposure to any change in Texas permitting or grid rules. IREN's own filings flag changes to the Texas grid operator's large-load interconnection process as a risk. IREN also operates in British Columbia and is developing sites in Oklahoma, Australia and Spain.

Nebius Group has built its U.S. footprint through New Jersey, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Alabama, with additional sites in Europe. Its 1.2 GW Pennsylvania campus should deliver a first 260 MW by October 2027. Nebius reported more than $40 billion of committed backlog with second-quarter results and held more than 3.5 GW of contracted power as of May. Investors should note the difference: contracted power means secured electricity, not signed customers. Nebius still fell with the group on Nov. 4, suggesting part of the selling was about the sector rather than specific sites.

Applied Digital also sits outside Texas, with campuses in North Dakota, Louisiana and Alabama. As of Aug. 31 it held leases for about 1.41 GW across five campuses, worth roughly $36 billion over their base terms. About 250 MW is already operational at Polaris Forge 1 in North Dakota, with other campuses phasing in through 2028. Its tenants include CoreWeave and investment-grade hyperscalers.

Why do existing power and signed leases matter?

Location helps when the power is in place and the leases are signed. Some analysts expect projects already underway to continue even if rules tighten. If new approvals slow, existing powered sites could become scarcer, and more valuable.

Location hurts when revenue depends on capacity that is neither contracted nor approved. New permitting steps, interconnection changes or lost tax incentives could stretch timelines, and any delay pushes back the date when rent or cloud revenue begins. For Riot, the risk is executing on a schedule that runs into mid-2028; for IREN, it is Texas capacity still waiting for customers. Nebius and Applied Digital carry less direct Texas risk but are not immune to tighter rules elsewhere.

In AI infrastructure, the map now matters as much as the backlog, and the next test will be whether Riot delivers its first 400 MW at Corsicana on time in September 2027.