Kalshi Targets $65 Billion Valuation for GPU Compute Futures Push

By Tom Whitfield

Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh capital at a $65 billion valuation, a 62.5% jump from its $40 billion price tag just two weeks ago, to fund a compute futures trading platform. A person familiar with the matter told Reuters on November 12 that the money would back a new derivatives marketplace tied to computing resources, including cloud infrastructure and GPU capacity. The investment size is undisclosed, and Kalshi has not confirmed the discussions.

The move would put Kalshi in direct competition with CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), both of which are building compute derivatives of their own. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), however, has delayed approval of GPU rental-price futures over concerns about market manipulation and the reliability of pricing benchmarks.

How Does the $65 Billion Valuation Compare With Previous Rounds?

The numbers have moved fast. Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series G on October 29 at a $40 billion post-money valuation, co-led by Wellington Management and Sequoia Capital. Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, Morgan Stanley Investment Management and several other institutional investors also took part.

That round followed a $1 billion Coatue-led Series F in May at a $22 billion valuation. A close at $65 billion would mean a nearly threefold increase since May and a $25 billion increase since October.

Alongside its October announcement, Kalshi reported more than $1 trillion in annualized trading volume and over $1 billion in annualized revenue from non-sports markets. Annualized trading volume measures contract turnover, not revenue, and the company has not published comprehensive profitability figures.

There is also a listing angle. October's round was expected to be Kalshi's last private financing before a potential initial public offering. Another private round would supply development capital without forcing an immediate public listing.

Takeaway: the valuation leap prices in far more than prediction markets alone can deliver today.

Why Is Kalshi Entering Compute Futures?

Compute futures let market participants hedge or speculate on future rental prices for computing capacity. AI developers, cloud providers, data center operators and financial institutions financing GPU assets all face that exposure. Buyers risk rising rental costs; infrastructure providers risk falling revenue if GPU prices decline. Standardized futures would let both sides manage the risk without relying only on privately negotiated contracts.

Kalshi flagged compute markets among its planned product launches in October, alongside financial indices and single-stock perpetual futures.

The competitive field is already crowded:

• CME Group has partnered with Silicon Data on cash-settled futures linked to Nvidia H100 and B200 GPU rental indexes, based on standardized quantities of computing capacity.
• ICE has partnered with Ornn on GPU compute futures referencing transaction-based pricing indexes, covering Nvidia H100, H200 and B200 hardware.

Compute differs from conventional commodities in one structural way: computing capacity cannot be stored for later delivery. Credible hedging instruments therefore depend on reliable reference prices, sound settlement mechanisms and sufficiently liquid markets.

Takeaway: demand for AI infrastructure does not automatically produce liquid futures markets; commercial adoption will decide the revenue.

Why Has the CFTC Delayed GPU Futures Approval?

The CFTC has extended its examination of proposed GPU rental-price contracts while it assesses whether the underlying benchmarks are susceptible to manipulation. The Financial Times reported this week that the review has been extended by at least 60 days, pushing potential trading into early 2027. The delay has already affected CME's planned contracts.

The core problem is price formation. Unlike widely traded commodities with transparent exchange prices, computing capacity is frequently rented through private agreements, which makes representative pricing and independent verification harder to establish.

For Kalshi, the regulatory uncertainty compounds a structural disadvantage: established exchanges already own institutional distribution networks and clearing infrastructure.

What Determines Kalshi's Next Stage?

The financing remains under discussion, with no confirmed amount, investor commitments or closing date. Separately, the CFTC warned Kalshi earlier in November of potential enforcement charges over its notification procedures for certain derivatives contracts. Kalshi called the matter procedural, involving a limited number of submissions.

The compute futures plan is distinct from those allegations, but both underline the weight of regulatory compliance as the company widens its product range. The milestones ahead are the fundraising outcome, regulatory clearance for compute futures, and evidence that institutions will trade the new contracts at commercially meaningful volumes.