Nebius Falls 18% After Q3 Beat Gives Way to 2026 Slippage

Nebius stock fell 17.72% to $127.58 on Thursday, November 12, despite third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million that beat every published analyst estimate. Investors sold the stock anyway. The reason was timing: delayed data center capacity, a weaker 2026 forecast and a capital plan that now reaches $45 billion.

The drop erased Wednesday's 15.44% rally, when the stock closed at $154.69 after rival CoreWeave's results lifted sentiment across AI infrastructure names. Nebius issued a 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion, but the market priced the nearer term first.

What went wrong with 2026?

Nebius now expects full-year revenue at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range, after delays at third-party colocation facilities pushed capacity originally slated for late 2026 into the first half of 2027. Its December annualized run-rate revenue target has moved to February 2027. The company also raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance to roughly $27 billion, above its previous $20 billion to $25 billion range, and set a 2027 capex expectation of $40 billion to $45 billion.

One significant delay sits in New Jersey, where Nebius is switching its electricity supply to Bloom Energy fuel cells. Management expects to deliver more than half of the capacity contracted with Microsoft by year-end, with the remaining tranches scheduled for the second quarter of 2027. Microsoft was involved in planning the revised timetable, and the underlying contracts remain in place. This is a delivery delay, not a cancellation.

How strong were the numbers really?

Revenue rose 571% year over year, from $146.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $465.8 million, against a $5.2 million loss a year earlier. Net loss from continuing operations narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million, and adjusted net income was $90.9 million.

The beat was unambiguous against the three published consensus figures:

• Koyfin consensus, cited by Stocktwits: about $907 million
• Zacks estimate, per EBC Financial Group: $916.8 million
• Benzinga estimate, cited by Tickeron: about $937 million

Reported revenue exceeded these by roughly $44 million to $74 million, or 4.7% to 8.1%.

One qualification matters. The shareholder letter disclosed that about $325 million of quarterly revenue, roughly a third of the total, was non-recurring and came from the initial rollout of the asset-light partnership model. Excluding it leaves approximately $655.8 million, though that is not a company-reported recurring measure. Headline growth flatters the quarter.

Can the funding model carry the buildout?

Nebius spent $7.3 billion on property, equipment and intangibles in the quarter alone, up 664% year over year, against $980.8 million of revenue. The gap is the story. Customers have committed more than $12 billion in contract value since the start of the third quarter, and prepayments on Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of associated capex, compared with 50% to 60% in Q2. Average payback periods on one- to three-year deals improved to one year and seven months from one year and ten months, helped by higher contracted prices.

Management expects prepayments and contract-backed financing from investment-grade customers to cover roughly 75% to 85% of 2027 capital expenditure. That is a financing assumption, not secured cash. Nebius also targets pre-tax breakeven in the fourth quarter of 2027 rather than a full-year profit.

Annualized run-rate revenue reached $6.4 billion at the end of September, up from $3 billion in June. The prior target of $7 billion to $9 billion by December now stands as an expectation of ARR above $7 billion in February 2027, with the trajectory beyond that less certain. Reaching the low end of full-year guidance requires about $1.038 billion in Q4, only 5.8% growth over Q3.

Why delivery now outweighs demand

The contrast with CoreWeave is instructive. CoreWeave raised its near-term guidance to $13.3 billion; Nebius trimmed the effective top of its range. Both face heavy infrastructure costs, but one improved its near-term outlook while the other moved revenue sideways into 2027.

Nebius has demonstrated demand, pricing power and improving adjusted profitability. It has not yet demonstrated that contracted capacity converts to revenue on schedule. The next evidence arrives with the remaining New Jersey Microsoft capacity in Q2 2027 and the February ARR milestone; until then, investors will weigh the $40 billion to $45 billion spending plan against the financing terms that underpin it.